Hezbollah Didn't Win
Arab writers are beginning to lift the veil on what really happened in Lebanon.
BY AMIR TAHERI
The way much of the Western media tells the story, Hezbollah won a great victory against Israel and the U.S., healed the Sunni-Shiite rift, and boosted the Iranian mullahs' claim to leadership of the Muslim world. Portraits of Hassan Nasrallah, the junior mullah who leads the Lebanese branch of this pan-Shiite movement, have adorned magazine covers in the West, hammering in the message that this child of the Khomeinist revolution is the new hero of the mythical "Arab Street."
Probably because he watches a lot of CNN, Iran's "Supreme Guide," Ali Khamenei, also believes in "a divine victory." Last week he asked 205 members of his Islamic Majlis to send Mr. Nasrallah a message, congratulating him for his "wise and far-sighted leadership of the Ummah that produced the great victory in Lebanon."
By controlling the flow of information from Lebanon throughout the conflict, and help from all those who disagree with U.S. policies for different reasons, Hezbollah may have won the information war in the West. In Lebanon, the Middle East and the broader Muslim space, however, the picture is rather different.
Let us start with Lebanon.
Immediately after the U.N.-ordained ceasefire started, Hezbollah organized a series of firework shows, accompanied by the distribution of fruits and sweets, to celebrate its victory. Most Lebanese, however, finding the exercise indecent, stayed away. The largest "victory march" in south Beirut, Hezbollah's stronghold, attracted just a few hundred people.
Initially Hezbollah had hesitated between declaring victory and going into mourning for its "martyrs." The latter course would have been more in harmony with Shiite traditions centered on the cult of Imam Hussain's martyrdom in 680 A.D. Some members of Hezbollah wished to play the martyrdom card so that they could accuse Israel, and through it the U.S., of war crimes. They knew that it was easier for Shiites, brought up in a culture of eternal victimhood, to cry over an imagined calamity than laugh in the joy of a claimed victory.
Politically, however, Hezbollah had to declare victory for a simple reason: It had to pretend that the death and desolation it had provoked had been worth it. A claim of victory was Hezbollah's shield against criticism of a strategy that had led Lebanon into war without the knowledge of its government and people. Mr. Nasrallah alluded to this in television appearances, calling on those who criticized him for having triggered the war to shut up because "a great strategic victory" had been won.
You can read the rest on my Blog
Thank for Raja from The Lebanese Bloggers for pointing the article out.
posted by BOB @ 2:09 PM
39 Comments:
Well ,
Assuming , that the war is over , I would like to answer : Who won this war or at least gained from it ?
Lebanon lost , no doubt.
Israel lost , or at least didn't win.
My conclusion is , that Hizballa won this war at the expense of Lebanon ...
You are invited to check my last post dedicated to the "Great Mahdi"
Emil,
emil-jakubowicz.blogspot.com
I take great exception to one line in this excerpt: "to cry over an imagined calamity". This calamity was not imagined, no matter what even you think of Nasrallah, Bob. I know you didn't write this, but I hope you're not even allowing yourself to nod in approval to this utter bullshit line.
And Emil, let's just stop it with this stupidest of questions: "Who won?" In war, and this one especially, there is no victor; there is just a lot of losers. I think Hizballah should have stuck with the Shiite tradition and gone into into mourning the martyrs--not its martyrs--all those innocent civillians that paid the biggest price one can pay, and for what? Nothing, nada, rien, niente, wala shee... As Benjamin Franklin said, "There is no good war, or bad peace."
looooooooool
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Amir Taheri is a known fabricator and has been unable to defend his own work. Whether or not he has received money from the US government as part of the multi-million dollar legislation to destabilize the Iranian regime, I do not know, but he does have many friends for a New American Century and shares the wet dreams of Ahmad Chalabi.
Frankly, his weighing in against Hizbullah suggests the desperation of the opponents of the resistance. Of course, feel free to take his "arguments" at face value if you like, but if I ever find myself agreeing with him, it is usually time for a position rethink.
What is next for the Wall Street Journal? Will they call Said Aql from the grave to review an anthology of Palestinian poetry?
Really, BOB, you are free to challenge Hizbullah on any number of grounds, but you do not need "friends" like this. The nonsense of such rank propagagandists, especially one with such close ties to the US and Israeli government, is the rhetorical equivalent of Israeli tanks. In other words, run, don't walk and expect innocents, like the truth, to suffer ...
Amir Taheri is a known fabricator and has been unable to defend his own work.
I need examples and proofs before I can accept such a statement. Mere association with people of possibly dubious character isn't enough.
here is a start, but literally there are not enough hours in the day:
http://www.zmag.org/content/showarticle.cfm?ItemID=10612
I would add that even in the seat of empire, where his "views" would have their maximum political utility, he is not considered credible by anyone not working at the White House, DOD or related "think tanks."
And yes, he is of Iranian descent, if that was not clear, but I do not know where he was born. I was, in fact, implying that BOB would probably not want to endorse the views of a man that regularly calls for a foreign miitary attack on his ancestral homeland.
People, we shouldn't give valuable time to clowns. You should stop reading when you see something like "The largest "victory march" in south Beirut, Hezbollah's stronghold, attracted just a few hundred people." Even if you want Hezbollah to go to hell, you can't just switch your brains to sleep mode. How many people do you honestly think will show up when Hezbollah calls for an actual victory march? A few hundreds or more than a million?
I have no problems with a person being a racist prick (imagined calamity?) but an ignorant lying racist prick is not allowed. Be sophisticated in your bigotry, or forever keep quiet.
apokraphyte and Arch
No Taheri is not my "friend" and i do not agree to all what he said. I was just trying to bring another perspective into light.
And even if he is questionable and took money and ... some of what he said sound logical and even some is true. for example his criticism that Nassrallah's marjaa al taklid in Iran is source of tension, and so is his analysis of Nassrallah's green flood.
Anyways i liked the article it brought a different perspective, but regarding the question of who one i will stick with Arch's "In war, and this one especially, there is no victor; there is just a lot of losers."
Said Aql died? I am always the last one to know... No one ever tells me anything around here!
Thanks, Apo. I'll read Taheri with a more critical eye from now on. There isn't enough, however, to condemn him completely, given the subject matter he works with and the necessarily unreliable and occasionally unconfirmable sources of information that he draws from.
well, apo. basically said what i wanted to, but here is another link exposing he "academic work" as fraud":
link.
"but an ignorant lying racist prick is not allowed. Be sophisticated in your bigotry, or forever keep quiet."
Hmm. Does that apply to Nasrallah as well (or do you actually believe that he had no clue how Israel would respond and Hezbollah does not get weapons from Iran)?
I am impressed by some comments in here.
wink wink..lebanese flattery :P.
Akiva,
1) Given that Olmert's government may fall over the Lebanon debacle -- despite some most recent reports in the Israeli press to the opposite, I think Nasrallah could possibly be forgiven for understimating the stupidity and/or insanity of his enemies. To be sure, HIZB has sent mixed messages on this front (we did not expect such an attack/Israel was planning for such an attack for the fall) and should be taken to task for doing so. I will leave that to the Lebanese, just as I will leave Olmert's dissembling to the Israelis.
2) I dont know where Hizb gets its weapons from. It is possible they get them from Iran, but that is hardly necessary given the cheap availability of their caliber across the globe. Perhaps Iran sent Hizbullah some of the Israeli made rockets that have been languishing in stockpiles since the 1980s. Quite simply, I do not know.
Much more certain am I that Israeli military and intelligence officials do not believe that Hizbullah acts and/or operates under orders from Tehran and/or Damascus.
I do not begrudge Israel in its use of propaganda, as it is one of the more common historical instruments of statecraft worldwide. However, that is no reason for the sensate to swallow it whole or repeat it reflexively, especially when and where solid evidence exists to the contrary.
Were I an Israeli, I would not accept that my country is a mere puppet of the US due to the annual volume of American aid, military and otherwise. But perhaps according to your logic, I am wrong.
Arch,
Of what concern physical death, especially when measured against its other forms ... ;)
BOB,
If you are unaware of the politics that exist within the clerical world, well I dont what to say ... except for be sure to measure what the Grand Mufti of Tyre says today against what he said yesterday and whatever will come out of his mouth tomorrow ...
JIJ,
You are right as I am guilty of stating the obvious, but it is either that or wretch and this seems more hygienic ...
arch- no, Said akl didn't die...at least not to my knowledge!
apokraphyte
to use your own words "If you are unaware of ..." where hezballah gets its weapons "... well I dont what to say."
peace
Peace to you as well, Bob. I did not mean to offend your sensibilities.
BUT:
If Hizbullah has demonstrated anything over the last month, it is their offensive military competence. The chief problem of military planning is logistics, or supply and then resupply. It seems they have solved this problem and I would wager, without proof, that they are smart enough to not rely on one or two sources for their military equipment.
This hypothesis makes not only military sense, it makes political sense as Hizbullah, like all political, social and military organizations, recognizes the value of maneuverability and I would bet they have been playing a very Lebanese game of using any side available to further their own domestic objectives. I dont want to sound critical of the Lebanese in this sense, because we see this everywhere -- Israeli military planners have contingency plans for any possible halt or reduction of US financial and military aid (why else would they piss of the Americans by signing military technology agreements with the Chinese). And I think no sane person would question whether the US does not in fact often use multi-dimensional means, however internally contradictory, to pursue its objectives.
As I indicated, Iran probably does supply Hizbullah with weaponry, but the extent of that supply remains an open question and I dont find answers that serve very clear political purposes to be satisfactory.
I would say much the same for Hizbullah funding and imagine that the focus on the Iranian source of that money (or other nonsense about Hizb's involvement in the international trade of narcotics) is a very willful distortion on the part of those interested in weakening the group. That the role of Lebanese Shia in Africa in supporting the group through horribly vicious and exploitative business practices there says more about what other types of nationals might also be benefitting from those trades.
In sum, all is political and none should be saved from scrutiny.
"If Hizbullah has demonstrated anything over the last month, it is their offensive military competence."
now that's comedy.
"offensive military competence"?
They launched 3000+ rockets that killed less than 100 people.
Their "defense of Lebanon" ended up with Lebanon in shambles and Israel occupying lebanese ground up to the Litani. They killed fewer Israeli soldiers in a month than died in 6 days in 1967.
They recaptured not an inch of land from Israel.
Their sole "victory" was in merely surviving.
And btw, if you believe that Iran is not the primary supplier of weapons and money to Hezbollah, I have a lovely bridge for sale - it takes you between Manhattan and Brooklyn.
Akiva,
Fascinating ... So you would like me to measure military competence based on a ratio of munition payload per casualty. A bit blood thirsty for my tastes, but it is interesting.
Well, I am afraid if we do go that route, which I do not recommend, Hizbullah might have a better ratio, but I dont have such statistics on me, so I wont reach that conclusion just yet. It is fascinating though, especially since I had been reading about all this violent destruction this evil terrorist organization had inflicted on Israel ... I guess it did not happen or maybe it did ... Damn, now I am confused ...
Secondly, if you read my post, I did not suggest anything about Hizbullah's defensive capabilities and indeed this issue will roil Lebanese politics for the coming months as it should.
Thirdly, I think there was almost universal amazement among the international military intelligence community as to Hizbullah's ability to continue to fire rockets into northern Israel for over a month. You could say a heavier Israeli attack would have blunted this capacity, but that just begs the same questions: what made the Israelis think that it was not necessary or prohibitive in terms of cost. Clearly, I think no one anticipated Hizbullah's ability to maintain its offensive capabilities and yes you are right those offensive capabilities are, compared to the destructive power of the Israeli arsenal, mere pin pricks. But there seems to be some disagreement between what I hear from the media about the horrible destruction and your sense of it, so perhaps we should not rush to judgment.
Some prefer to measure military operations by their ability to achieve their stated purpose. Hizbullah was very clear in capturing the two soldiers that its goal was a prisoner exchange and not the liberation of Arab land (indeed, it called for a cease-fire from the beginning and indicated that it would ONLY fire rockets into northern Israel IF Israel attacked civilian targets). Now it seems that there will be a prisoner exchange so yes Hizbullah has achieved its military objective. However, as you note, the price of that objective is just beginning to be calculated and if the register rings disarmament then I would agree Hizbullah lost the war.
Meanwhile, Israel had no strategic objective (or seven or eight open-ended, unachievable ones) and thus could not but lose. Indeed, we will hear much about this in Israel in the coming months, as well as about the meaning and the costs of the Israeli war on Lebanon. Although, I would say, that if Hizbullah is disarmed we do have an Israeli victory, so we will have to keep our eyes peeled on developments.
Anyway, the victory talk is not my concern. I will leave it to others and those who have a stake in the domestic political process. If anything, it is like what Mao said of the significance of the French Revolution: it is much too early to say ... The costs on both sides are just being tallied so whatever military objectives are achieved by either side they will have to weighed against the military, social, political and economic costs.
Oh, and I know that bridge well ... ;) How much? And would your price change if I told you that I have heard rumors that Muslim terrorists with scissors intend to destroy it?
apokraphyte - "offensive military competence" means more than just randomly lobbing missiles at an enemy with no achievable goals; "competence" means "effectiveness" rather than mere ability to attack (otherwise every army in the world is equally "competent")
Nobody was particularly surprised that Hezbollah managed to continue lobbing missiles at Israel, least of all the Israelis (that's why people stayed in their bomb shelters), and if anybody was surprised they weren't thinking very clearly.
As for the destruction in northern Israel, yes, it was very real. But destruction of property wasn't the goal of the Hezbollah rocket barrages (otherwise they would have used warheads packed with . . . I don't know . . . explosives, rather than shrapnel which does less damage to buildings but is really good for "accidentally" killing civillians who are "unexpectedly" in various cities). The goal was to kill as many Israelis as possible. And at that, they failed miserably. The secondary goal was to deter Israeli attacks. Also a miserable failure
As for a prisoner swap, yes, it's being discussed. Odds are any prisoner swap will be for Hezbollah members captured during this war, not for Kuntar
BTW, could you explain to me how you can support an organization that would like to free that human bag of excrement? I'd appreciate knowing.
I would agree I was being imprecise: more accurate would be "their ability to maintain their offensive capacity."
If nobody was suprised, why did the IDF and the political leadership constantly say the goal was to stop the rocket barrage?
I would also disagree. Their primary goal of launching rockets was to deter Israeli attacks. It is unclear if this worked or not.
I would not mind if Hizbullah is taken to task for loading the rockets with shrapnel, but would imagine that the response would have something to do with not having sufficient supplies of the required explosive. But you have a point that needs to be addressed and explored.
I am carbon-neutral when it comes to such wonderful labels in the Middle East. I guess I could accept such a moniker for Kuntar, but would insist on a linguistic exchange: whatever shall we call Begin, Rabin, Sharon etc...
"I would not mind if Hizbullah is taken to task for loading the rockets with shrapnel, but would imagine that the response would have something to do with not having sufficient supplies of the required explosive."
And that, of course, sums up the futility of this exercise. You will always think the best of Hezbollah, whatever the facts tell you. They loaded warheads with shrapnel? Must have been a lack of explosives (what, Iran forgot to send warheads when they sent the Zelzals and other supplies??). They get weapons from Iran? Eh, probably not that many, I'm sure they have other sources. They admit that their fight is to wipe Israel off the map? Well, that's justifiable, I guess, it must be a cultural thing. and on and on and on
What is really fun is to draw the parallels between Hizbullah and early Zionism. The organizational, ideological and strategic similarities are remarkable and if Israelis want to worry about something, let it be that. But then that, of course, would require acknowledging the good and evil in oneself as its reflection in others. Tis for a later time, unfortunately ...
HA and early zionist 'terror' groups do share ideological and strategic similarities. while both people that these groups represent worked out of a feeling of oppression, the only difference though is that back then the british were sympathetic to the jewish movement while HA is just being attacked by the west today.
D., that's it, you're officially our lawyer ;)
Mirvat,
I dont think that is correct. The British were sypathetic to ... the British and their interests. Indeed, the Zionists battled the British from time to time and the British quarantine policies (keeping Jews from reaching the shore) were impossibly inhumane. After a certain point in time and as things spiraled out of control, the British wanted out and were happy to accomodate whomever would make that possible. A history of their management of the crisis suggests the British were hardly sympathetic to any side other than their own. Just to be clear ... or try to be clear ...
Mirvat,
You also cannot afford me ... ;)
and you're not even there yet.. ;)
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Believe me, I was there even before I knew where there was ... ;)
apokraphyte
i find your statement about the Mufti of Tyr a bit unfair, and untruthful the guy is very respected and has rarely before spoken to the media, or changed his statements. Therefore, i trust what he says and agree with it.
About the clerk and their tension I was only showing how much Hezbollah is linked to Iran both ideologically and religiously, check out the concepts of wilayat al faqih and marjaa al taqlide.
Moreover many prominent Lebanese Shiite have started speaking out about Hezbollah, if you read Arabic i can send you several very interesting articles, especially the one titled "being shiite now"
Finally, you are looking on a problem with a bias, and I admit that no one is perfectly objective. But trust me when i say that Hezbollah have made a big mistake this time. You can lode their action and applaud their ideologies, point is I, like many Lebanese are sick of war and destruction, especially senseless ones. So yes we or at least I want peace…
and mirvat, no i will not accept this guy as our lawyer...
bob,
come on! this article" being shitte" is circulating all over the newspapers as if it contains holy facts! It just includes nothing that extreme points of views.
there's something dangerous going now, which is trying to interfere with internal issues with in the shee3a from other sectarian parties, especially jombla6. no body has the right to change a sect but the people from these sect. I would agree to what mohaammad el2ameen says sometimes. but this is still an internal sectarian issue.
bas let me ask u a question, ya3neh iza 7adan mosh derzeh tdakhal la sali7 7adan dod jombla6 in the druze sect shoo kein sar.. ya la6eef.. ya la6eef.
w bennesbeh la wileiyit elfaqih, inno ma ba3rif bas shoo ektashafit ya bob elmay essekhneh, ya3neh baddak e7keelak 3an ghars saleeb elmasi7iyyeh bil shar2 wel saleeb elm3qoof?
see what is followed on ground rather than going to concepts. It's lebanon ya bob.
hezeb etta7reer wants to make "khelafeh rashedeh", no body is talking about him maybe because he has no arms or powers till the moment or maybe because it's sunni.
bas here i ask, did hizballah used his weapons internally?? you gotta be honest and say that till the moment , No it never happened.
A most probable solution now is a national unity government that includes aoun as well, no matter how much you see him mad and crazy but till the next elections he is the one who is representing "majority" of christians, we like it or not.
u will tell me, that the government won't be sucessful, but this leads us to the question: was THIS government successful? I may agree that there were urgent conditions but le us not give us the excuses and deal. what did nayla mo3awwad's ministry do during the crisis do?
My opinion is that it's better to absorb such sectarian escalation rather than fool around saying lahhoood must be replaced or not. inno as if he has power at the moment.
Bob,
Do you want me to address your comments or not. It is up to you so just let me know ... I am cool either way ...
apokraphyte,
I was, in fact, implying that BOB would probably not want to endorse the views of a man that regularly calls for a foreign miitary attack on his ancestral homeland.
I see. So the opinion of Germans in 1942 calling for the invasion of Germany and deposal of the Nazis would not be credible, in your opinion?
I can see that YOU might not consider an invasion of Iran to be worthwhile, but there are plenty of Sunni Muslims and non-Persians who actually have to LIVE in Iran who think an invasion is just what the doctor called for.
Is this off topic? Yes. Particularly in the case of Lebanon in which a foreign-controlled entity within a country picked a fight with another country...a fight most Lebanese did not want. The opposite of the situation in Iran. However, your lame ad hominem attacks are without merit.
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Dearest CMAR II,
Thank you for your note. I dont know whatever became of me and how I could become so lost. I really appreciate your corrective as now I feel I am back on the "right" path.
In fact, I think we are brothers in-arms. I have long been calling for Swedes to intervene on my behalf against an unelected zoning board commission in my hometown. To date, my cries for freedom of renovation have fallen on deaf ears in Scandanavia, but your words give me the courage to continue my fight against the dark night of fascism until every condominium in the United States is free from the clutches of these barbaric totalitarians and their state sponsors in the county legislature.
To be sure, it has been a difficult fight as they continue to insist on the rule of law and an attention to historical details concerning my wanton destruction of my neighbor's property. But your words give me hope.
So thank you and let freedom ring ...
17.7.06
Warning Strong Pictures
These are the pictures you will see, only, in Lebanese newspapers tomorrow. yes, too strong & maybe non-postable for ethical reasons, but what is going on in Lebanon has gone beyond any ethics in any worldwide dictionary. This is what the Israeli raids are doing to my country, to my people. This is what they will keep on doing, under the pretext of "self-defense". Those are the terrorists who scared Ehud Olmert. A moment of silence, a prayer and a call for all those who care still about humanity to wake up!!
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