On Winning
Hizballah did NOT win this round, and neither did Israel. Gloating would be foolish at this time. This last war was not a zero sum game. Actually it was a very costly game for everyone. Let's not forget that. I would rather this not have happened at all, so I don't see how it can be seen as a victory. Yes you can argue that we didn't start it (i.e. that they had planned to do it anyway). Assuming that, did we succeed in making sure they can not do this again? No. Did we create a deterrance to protect our sovreignty? No. Will we make them pay reparations for our loss of lives and property? No. Did we get the prisoners back? No. Are we safer??? No. The Israeli objective was to paralyze the operational ability of HA. They did not meet it through force, so they can't be considered to have won. HA is still alive, but the fact that Israel didn't win does not mean that we (or HA) won. Again, it's not a zero-sum game.
Looking back, I wonder what are our objective verifiable measures of success were? I think we need to define them before something like this happens again, so we can hold our leaders (and "defendors") accountable. Seriously, what ARE our defense objectives? Not being completely wiped out as a country? Not dying? Repelling an unprovoked attack? Responding with overwhelming force to create a deterrance? Repelling a provoked attack? Provoking an attack and holding our breath for a month? WHAT????
I'm writing this not in the spirit of defeatism, and certainly not of favoring Israelis over any Lebanese. I'm just trying to be rational, sober, inquisitive as I seek accountability... things that are usually absent from Lebanese political discourse.
These are my two cents. Keep the comments constructive and responsible. This is an open intra-Lebanese debate, please keep racist, bigoted, or blatantly pro-Israeli comments out. Also, please refrain from questioning my patriotism for not jumping on the celebration band-wagon.
posted by Firas Wehbe @ 11:55 PM
10 Comments:
firas -
i agree.
Firas, the questions that you raise are very valid, and I agree with you completely. Actually, no, I will go a step further to say not only did we not win, but we lost heavily. And no, I am not questioning the heroic resilience of the Lebanese people, or even that of HA. What I mean is that we have endured the heaviest damages, in terms of life as well as infrastructure. And that's not because we as a people are weaker; if anything I would argue the reverse. But it is because of the alighnment of global powers. The equation is simple: Israel has the US, the undeterred global power, on its side, and that is allowing it to get away with murder. Literally.
I am not saying that we don't have morality and right on our side; we do. But, as much as I hate to be a defeatist, I am saying that this is a very unjust world. Humanity and civility are useless extinct values. This war, amongst many others around us, is the biggest proof of that. And that is why I say the questions you raise are very valid.
Now is not the time to gloat; now is the time to mourn, and then question. I said when this is over I will go and dance and drink the night away; but I am not in a jubillant mood. Far from it. All I want to do right now is cry, cry all the people that no one in the world seems to give a shit about, all those people rotting under the rubble still...
But my worst fear about this whole thing, that aside from the utter devastation to the country and the massacres, that what happened will further radicalize people and risk another civil war. People were relatively united during the crisis, but my fear is that now that it is over (hopefully), that people would completely split within Lebanon. Yes, perhaps one could blame HA for provocation and an utter miscalculation, but Israel's response has been beyond the disproportionate; it has been outright vicious, atrocious and absolutely unjustifiable. And that could explain why people in Lebanon were mostly faulting Israel. But I think that will quickly change for many. The scale of the devastation is just utterly astounding, if not outright incomprehensible. So, I would not be surprised that people would be further radicalized; I just hope it will not precipitate into a civil war. I read this very disturbing article recently, and I just hope it's way off...
I just hope that this is over, and I hope that this is the worst of it (which god knows is bad enough)...
RimStalker (very disturbing username, by the way):
Since it seems you're the only one who's not aware that Israel had this in the planning for a while and was just waiting for an excuse, here's an article from the San Francisco Chronicle revealing that "Israel set war plan more than a year ago: Strategy was put in motion as Hezbollah began gaining military strength in Lebanon". And I am sure there has been many articles since stating the same (such as the one mentioned by Delirious above). I am sure you can find the rest if you wish.
http://www.al-akhbar.com/ar/node/993
http://www.al-akhbar.com/ar/node/912
Firas,
Of course the war was not necessary. There are no winners and losers in the war, only losers. A "moral cause" for a war is in my opinion, a contradictory term.
It is unfortunate that people are almost always dragged into a war, then have to be dragged out of it - due to sustained injuries.
Since we are introspecting, I have a grudge against the world - maybe hatred. I cannot believe that the US & UK were seeking a "lasting ceasefire" when they knew a ceasefire of any kind will save lives- I can't look at the faces of Bush, Rice or Blair anymore. I cannot believe that Iran and Syria were cowardly cheering the war, each trying to gain something out of the Lebanese people's resistence, blood, and courage. I cannot believe that apathy was the name of the game for the Arab countries on the political level. I can never forgive them either.
How can they wash the blood off their hands?
One last thing, I cannot believe a country builds the third army in the world [so they say] - only to stow it away. Countries build armies to fight wars; A combination of great military strenght, no heart, and a "small mind" result into a blast of the kind we say. Only a fool would use an F-16 to go raid a "victory arch" near Baalbeck, a dairy factory in Bekaa, and a biscuit factory in Chweifat. They say that Fairuz had to go underground because Jisr Lawziyyeh - no more than a tune, was a potential target for the Israeli death machine.
I don't know if such an enemy should be ignored or fought. I just know war brings destruction.
Perhaps a lasting peace accord would mean disarming Israel for a starter or landing UN peacekeeping troops in Israel itself as well.. This time Israel used 20 tonne bombs, next time they will use a nuclear or a chemical weapon, with the same immoral justification, while nations of the world scurry around in search for "another lasting ceasefire."
By then, it would have been too late. By then, the cycle of violence would have spun out of control that it doesn't matter who started, and who is right.
Fadi, I share your anger at the world... I have lost faith in humanity. It is a corrupt world where massacres are whitewashed, or simply relegated to second page for makeshift explosive toothpaste. It is so absurd, it would have been comical, if it weren't so tragic. How morally bankrupt is this world we live in!
But disarming Israel? Are you kidding? I used to believe in a prospect of peace with Israel. Right now, I have degraded that to live and let live. No normative relations, none of that bullshit where we pretend they didn't butcher thousands of our people in the last half century just for the taste of blood, or a reason that is equally feign. Don't want to visit them, don't want them to visit me. And I certainly would never trust this entity next door ever again. Not after this.
Yes, we need deterrance, as Firas suggested; but HA can't be it. We're not Iran; a militant Islamic army is not for Lebanon. I used to laugh at the idea of a Lebanese Army; now I see the necessity for some kind of effective deterrance, even if it's an alliance with the devil. (The only problem is that Israel already has exclusivity on the Almighty Devil.) The global community cannot be trusted to have a "conscience"; it has none. It has the pretense of one, the pretense of civilization, of humanity. Shame on a world that parades its religiosity and can't seem to remember its ethics. Bush championing the "unborn" and not giving a flying fuck about the born... I'd better stop.
Hi Firas,
I just stumbled onto the blog..via a search engine(really! Search terms: 'blogger forum')..and found your post to be both dispassionate and very true.
I am an American, but very critical of my country's foreign policy(our domestic policy isn't exactly prizeworthy either).
Where the US is screwing up the worst in the world changes regularly, but 'our' middle-east policy has been broken for roughly a century.
I essentially agree with arch.memory(1st reply in this thread) save for the point that Israel is a client state of the US. Arch.memory states my emotional sense of the crisis as well or better than I would have done..(good show!) I can add nothing to any effect.
Again, this applies to arch.memory's first reply in this thread.
I see no distinction between Israeli and US policy, and furthermore, it is by no means certain that Israel is the 'junior partner' in this union.
The Mearsheimer/Walt paper really removes any doubt of the breadth and depth of the Israel lobbies' remarkable amount of influence over US affairs; up to and including subversion of US interests in favor of policies favoring Israel.
There is a lot more that could be said about US policy, but in the interest of brevity I'll stop here.
You really seem a voice of reason amongst the reflexive hordes on all sides of this issue.
I bid you peace.
todd
imad, r u new to kamal's comments? u missed alot ;)
Ah, there we go, and there goes the country... Kamal, I pray thee, what do you recommend? Obligatory castration to all Shia males? I see where you're coming from, and my family is Shia, and I don't want my mother wearing a hijab (it makes every woman looks like a washing machine!). But one unfortunate (minor) result of this war was that my cute interior designer aunt started wearing a hijab... (Sigh!) And that's what I meant by my fear of radicalization. But any (realistic) solutions?
Since it seems you're the only one who's not aware that Israel had this in the planning for a while and was just waiting for an excuse, here's an article from the San Francisco Chronicle revealing that "Israel set war plan more than a year ago: Strategy was put in motion as Hezbollah began gaining military strength in Lebanon".
Uhm, all competent militaries make plans for all concievable contingencies. You are unbelievably ignorant if you don't realize that.
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