16.8.06

Sadly, it's not over.. yet.

So, Dr. Bashar El Asad played his lovely habit by classifying Lebanese people again. His speech makes it clear that it all just began. The party that was affected severely by his speech is Hezbollah. Don't be surprised, and let the talking about “Syrian- Iranian agents” aside because when it comes to Lebanon, every sect and party has its relations. Yet these relations stop at a certain point and don't exceed it. Whenever they do, tension will be expected to rise leading to unimaginable results.

Jomblat is going for another silly journalistic conference entitled : "we won't surrender to Bashar El Asad, we won't accept Hasan Nasrallah's conditions" ; thus, trying to present a whole package to the viewers aka putting fuel on fire regarding the internal Lebanese community.

Before the corpses were buried, the 14 march politicians went on doing their past-year- lovely hobby: “Sell talks”. You want some sovereignty? Take some.. You want some disarming demands? Wait, I can talk from now till ever.

14 March movement refuses Hezbollah’s victory. To be precise, they are in a state of denial. They are even foolishly proposing conditions on Hezbollah. They don't get that the war imposed new reality on ground. Sectarian tension is expected to rise more and more in the upcoming days due to the irresponsible political statements. This sectarian tension would have been avoided if the resistance was composed of all the sects.

I followed Nasrallah's announcement, and didn't find in it any thing that requires such tense responses. When politicians go on to sell talks on shows while blood is not yet dry and before the Israelis withdraw, they have to expect such a talk. Yet Nassrallah made it clear that he will discuss the disarming issue just south of Litani river thus opening a new opportunity for a dialogue.

We must remember that in Lebanon no body must be excluded from the political process. No body erases the other. Power balance changes from time to time but both sides cross the distance in between to reach the middle and have a compromise..
Does such a sectarian reality create a REAL country? For sure no.
Responsibility is the right choice the politicians have to take in order to pass this dangerous period. Will they succeed? Let's hope it won't be like the two years that passed.. Let's hope so..

15 Comments:

At Wednesday, August 16, 2006 12:51:00 AM, Blogger francois said...

to say the truth, i was pretty sure that once the conflict would be over, the Hezbollah would propose to rebuild the houses etc... that were destroyed.

now about the case scenario, if we do an inventory of what hapopened:
hezbollah politically won the war, as more then ever 1 millions of shia now support them. at least 1/3 of the lebanese population. Politically the hezbollah strenghed.

on the militaristic side, the israeli army which is the best equiped army in the middle east wasnt able to launch a wide ground operation without heavy losses. i m wondering how the lebanese army or an international force can desarme le military wing of the hezbollah.

Based on that, to avoid a civil strife we cannot act on a short term especially now that 1 m of people see the hezbollah as the only organization that is successful in its opponment to israel.

the best way to act is to strengh the lebanese institutions linked to the state, to compete with the hezbollah's social system. It is not the hezbollah that should rebuild the houses, but the state, if not the state, NGO.

no one dared to make that step.

we should build a real army to protect the lebanse borders, from syria and from israel and not an army that has the same firepower then Moscow cops.

Only by decreasing the popular support of the hezbollah we can disarm it without taking the risk of engaging our country into a civil war. By consequence, a necessary action should only take place in a medium to long term and not into a short term. The short terms options are too risky as they mean a high risk of civil strifes.

we have assets now to do so. it is the first time that the lebanese didnt go appart but helped each other beyong of all our communitaristic, religious and others differences. in our pain, the israeli offensive by hitting indifferently all the regions, christians, muslims etc... united the lebanese into the real concept of a nation. This nation concept should be the main lesson of all what happened last month and we should learn to put aside all the politicians that are desunifiying us.

 
At Wednesday, August 16, 2006 3:38:00 AM, Blogger why-discuss said...

The present governement has not made any offer to rebuild the south. They were too busy trying to diminish Hezbollah victory by asking them to disarm as they were the loosers. This inept government is doing exactly what will make the 1 million shia more attached than ever to the Hezbollah. Lebanon will have to live with Hezbollah as long as there is a government that has no long term strategy in including the Shia, for long neglected. But they are too debilitated even to realize what they are doing.

 
At Wednesday, August 16, 2006 7:02:00 AM, Blogger CMAR II said...

The rubble of Lebanon is the symbol of Hezbollah's "victory". I don't see how the country can afford to risk anymore victories for Hezbollah. Patriotic Lebanese should ensure that HA sees nothing but failure from now on.

 
At Wednesday, August 16, 2006 7:46:00 AM, Blogger Sherri said...

This may be a stupid question, but is there any way the army can bring Hezbullah within it somehow? Like a separate branch, with some autonomy, but that answers to some higher government official.

You have to admit that Hezbollah did a pretty good job standing up against Israel. It may require a guerilla type force to put up any defense against Israel and doesn't all of Lebanon need a defender against Israel and other outside forces that threaten it.

Does Hezbullah have support of Christians and Sunni Muslims?

 
At Wednesday, August 16, 2006 9:35:00 AM, Blogger happygames123 said...

what happen in the future ..what measure will be taken by the gov?

 
At Wednesday, August 16, 2006 9:47:00 AM, Blogger Fadi said...

I don't like Hizbullah. That I hope is a good excuse to give them some credit. I don't like them having weapons either, but someone else across the border will not disarm, and someone else across the border will not let the Lebanese army build its armour, neither can Lebanon afford financially the burden of getting ultra modern defensive technology.

Of course the politicians have to talk, or else they will be driven out of their jobs - and if there is one person I hate, he would be called Weam Wahab. Somone do something quick before I get hold of him. I hope that the Lebanese Army and Hizbullah work together to join forces to build a defensive technology to protect Lebanon.

Few if any have doubts that Israel is an enemy, and few if any have doubts that it's only a matter of time till their fighter jets invade our skies and demean our national sovereignty. The Carrot and stick policy: we sign treaties, but we can answer back if the ever come knocking our doors again.

We have to disntiguish between the ability to wage or trigger a way, and the defensive capabilities. Hizbullah has NO business waging wars, but every Lebanese, man or woman, including me Fadi, you Froncois, and you Hilal and all the ladies who wish to join forces, have a duty to defend against possible, and I would say, inavoidable agreesion in the future.

The country should be able to defend itself. Lebanon should build a controlled "civil-resistance" body that splits efforts between Hospitals, Civil Defense, media, social work, etc. and border confrontation.

My proposal is not to diminish Hizbullah, it's to expand it into Hizbu-Lubnan, a civil para-military group under the training and control of the Lebanese government and Lebanese Army. It's the name and the brand that is scaring so many people, not the role.

 
At Wednesday, August 16, 2006 3:52:00 PM, Blogger Ley-La said...

Lots of issues appeared after this war.. first: is it possible for hizbolla in the 1st place to be united with the lebanese army as a special force? and i ask this question for two reasons actually: 1-hizbolla believes are truely religious and that is faaaaaaar from any possibility that this force will be ooneday a part of the lebanese army...2: is it possible for this force to maintain its efficiency while different lebanese groups will have the right to determine its goals unider the title of the lebanses army? and i think u know what groups mean...
second: the speeech of al assad yesterday as hilal said has really pushed the HA into the edge (internally in lebanon) 7asharo bil zawye.at the time that mr. hassan nassrallah is adopting a moderate-tone speech , here comes al assad to fuck things up for him and increase the severity of the speech...this makes us wonder whether hizbolla is capable of saying no to iran and syria in any matter starting from regular military operation in south (and its timing)to political role that he wants or should pllay and the priorities he should set for him self (lebanon or...)
i think in these times what lebanese should do is to embrace HA internally to stamp him with the lebanese nationality and that will be the best to do ..labnanit HA cause whether we like it or no if u ask any shiite he will never say im lebanese he will say im HA , southern, and muslim shiite..

syria is playing by HA as a card between its hands with its negotiations with usa and we are the ones who are paying for the ups and downs of this process...

we gta be smart about this and i say again absorb hizbolla cause lebanon after all cannot be build upon erasing one section or few sections...hyda howwe hyda eyyah

 
At Wednesday, August 16, 2006 5:28:00 PM, Blogger CMAR II said...

Sherri,

You have to admit that Hezbollah did a pretty good job standing up against Israel. It may require a guerilla type force to put up any defense against Israel and doesn't all of Lebanon need a defender against Israel and other outside forces that threaten it.

Are you insane??? The reason Israel bombed and invaded Lebanon was the actions Hezbollah's "guerilla force". They did nothing to "defend Lebanon". HA could barely defend itself. The most the could due was cause limited destruction to northern Israel. If Israel had wanted to send tanks from one end of Lebanon to the other, she probably could have done it.

The "protection" HA offers is that of the Mafia.

"Pay us and we'll protect you"

"Who will you protect me from?"

"We'll protect you from us."

 
At Wednesday, August 16, 2006 6:49:00 PM, Blogger hillz said...

"If Israel had wanted to send tanks from one end of Lebanon to the other, she probably could have done it."

LOL.
Denial.. Denial..
Keep on denying it..

 
At Wednesday, August 16, 2006 8:16:00 PM, Blogger CMAR II said...

hilal chouman,

The Israeli government stated in advance that the only territorial changes it wanted was in south Lebanon. It made it to the Litani river in three days...all the land that it wanted to take. It bombed sites *all over* Lebanon with impunity.

HA did NOTHING to protect Lebanon or the Lebanese.

It is you who are in denial, my friend. The reason Lebanon cannot defend itself today is because Syria and its OCCUPYING FORCE Hezbollah have seen to it over the last 25 that Lebanon would not be able to defend itself.

 
At Wednesday, August 16, 2006 10:25:00 PM, Blogger hillz said...

ok..
as u like..
I am wondering if you read israeli jounalism?
And if u saw the exprssions of israelis on tv when olmert made his speech?

ps. hezballah is lebansese.. please don't panic..

btw, did the rockets stop being fired on israel till the last minute before ceasefire?
cause i thought that was one of the israeli goals, to stop rockets from being fired..
and u made me laugh on your "friend" word.
u r taking alot of humanitarian assumptions cmar..
keep on refreshing this site
:D

 
At Thursday, August 17, 2006 12:11:00 AM, Blogger Ramzi said...

Hilal,

Hezbollah did win a war with Israel, as in Israel failed to destroy Hezbollah. But Lebanon did not win. And no, Lebanon and Hezbollah are not the same thing.

The war imposed a new reality on the ground? You bet! That reality is 1400 innocent civilians DEAD and around 6 billion dollars in destruction. Oh, and another UN resolution. Not to mention the scores of Lebanese who have had to leave and make new lives elsewhere now.

The secterian tension is present and was present before the war. If the March 14th politicians are expressing what their consituents are thinking and saying then they are doing their job. Besides, Hezbollah is part of the government that is supposed to be the only legitimate power in Lebanon. Why make it a March 14th issue now?!

Sayyed Nasrallah is the last person to lecture the Lebanese about appropriate timing and about dialogue when he deliberately ignored BOTH when he took us all into this nightmare, "sha2 al lubnaniyoun am abu!"

Mish kel el libneniyeh 3indon libnen fida sirmeyt el sayed.

 
At Thursday, August 17, 2006 1:12:00 AM, Blogger hillz said...

Ramzi,
Ur comment seems irrelevant to the post almost except the "14 march issue".

I must tell you that I am a bit annoyed by it cause I didn't talk about “sarameh” neither about "Hizballah is Lebanon".

I clearly stated that Lebanon doesn't live without the exclusion of any of its constituting parties.
You seem didn't read the post well.
I was talking about reality in politics. So don't twist my words.

I stated obviously that I am with a resistance composed of all parties and the sectarian situation won't be as it is now IF THAT WHAT WE DID IN THE LAST 15 YEARS (AND I KNOW THAT SYRIANS STOPPED OTHERS FROM RESISTING).

About the 14 march politicians, I don't deny that I am against the childish proposals of jombla6 or Nayla m3awwad. By the way where was her ministry when we were in this mess..? (making declarations against waleed m3allim??)
About jombla6, hezballah supporters and people who died (supporting Hizballah actions or opposing them in addition to all who died during the last two years) are ALL FREE MARTYRS!! No one is slave here if that what was Jombla6 implying.

When he puts Hezballah with Asad in such manner (title for his conference), he is doing the same as Asad is doing: Giving opportunity to some ignorant Lebanese to go for more hatred between each other.The role of the politicians is not to follow their people in all cases, but to take responsible decisions and to avoid taking people in an emotional wave.

As for “sermeyit essayed”.. Fee kamein “kteer sarameh” feda jombla6 w hariri w aoun wa halomma jara.. W fee “dam byinsharab” w fee “badleit kakiyyeh btinlabas”.. so if u wanna comment on this include all or just exclude it since it is not a major thing and it is not the rule.

The sectarian tension was always present, that’s right. Does that mean we have to increase it to an exploding point??

Ba3dein ma fee last aw first in the dialogue issue. With out a dialogue a black "future" will be waiting for us..

With regards,

 
At Thursday, August 17, 2006 9:33:00 AM, Blogger Ley-La said...

pple!! please read more western journalism it will make u change your mind about the reason and the provoker of this war...and please dont be so naive and say israel made it to litani lol if u knwio the geography of litani ull be laughing at your self litani is a zag zag kind off river israel chose the nearest point to the border (few hundred meters away) and just sat there lol COME ONNNNNNNN and send tanks?? the israeli soldiers at the end refused to get in a TANK! theres no doubt about the difference in technology between IDF and hizbolla but also theres no doubt that technology does not always beat the strategy ..and courage..and just for the record?? im considered to be an anti hizbolla memeber in lebanon, but politics and military analysis make me say these things

 
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