28.1.07

What the hell is going on?

Somebody please explain to me. I'm at a loss recently. I don't understand what's happening to Lebanon these days. First off, why are people who were supporting Michel Aoun and against Syria for so many years, now with Hizbullah and by extension Syria? Opportunistic? One can say that about almost all political dinosaurs still screwing with Lebanon today. Right?

And what does Angry Arab think about this now? He was so critical of Aoun before, but now it seems as though he has an ambivalent and amost positive opinion of him. Why? I'm confused. Just because he criticizes Rafic al Hariri?

BOTTOM LINE:

It seems to me all parties involved do not have Lebanon's best intentions in mind. I don't like any of them. But I do believe that the current government is the least worse option at the moment. It seems to me that Aoun is getting paid by Syria so he can become president eventually. Aounites are cursing America just as much as the Hizbullians are. Doesn't mean the other options are great either. But must we go back to the stone age to settle these petty little schizophrenic scores?

What did everybody expect when the Iraq war was instigated? For the conflict to just stay within its borders? While the Lebanese situation is a long-time in the making, nobody can tell me that the sectarian strife in Iraq has not spread to Lebanon. Iraq became the new Lebanon of the 70s on the grandest scale, while the new Lebanon is preparing to become the old Lebanon again. It's so sad. So terrible. Just when it was getting back on its feet again. Where is this all going? Where are you taking us?

I bet you don't even know.

What I don't understand is why Christians that support Aoun think that Hizbullah will stick with him and not sell him out eventually? Isn't Aoun just putting a wedge between Christians?

Or is it just me?

Someboday explain please.

Remember, I don't like any current/dead political figures in Lebanon. None of them have done completely right by Lebanon. So, don't think I'm on your side if you support any of them one iota. I am completely and utterly indifferent and wishing for some new untainted faces.

And finally...

Is a wider regional war coming between the Saudi axis and the Iran axis?

10 Comments:

At Sunday, January 28, 2007 9:19:00 AM, Blogger Hisham said...

Because Aoun has an alliance with Hizballah does not mean that he is with Syria, or Iran for that matter. Just the same as are the Lebanese Forces with Saudi Arabia? The Saudi-Hariri connection is quite open and obvious! But you can bet your life, that every single LF member hates the hell out of Saudi Arabia.
The reason why Aoun and Hizballah are in an alliance is very simple. Since the moment Aoun arrived into Lebanon, he was being short-changed primarily by what was known as the alliance-of-four. He proved in the elections that he was the solid Christian representative, but that only made his opponents more mad; and they were able to exclude him from the government by striking a deal with minimal Christian factions like the LF and Phalanges, but also (surprise surprise) with Lahoud! They preferred to give Lahoud 4 ministers, then give Aoun 4 ministers!
The alliance of four, did not last long: the reason being the Shiites found their their opinion was insignificant! The projects that they approved on were passed by agreement, and the ones they disapproved on were passed by voting!
The agreement paper between Aoun and Hizballah was the result of (1) Aoun's openness to all political factions in Lebanon[unfortunately not reciprocated] (2) Aoun's belief that Hizballah can never be disarmed by confrontation, and them disarming will have to come by political agreement on terms that would ensure the values and principles that they are based on and that their followers have given their life for.
The July war came to cement that agreement. Aoun showed that he is one to respect his agreements [unlike the alliance of four, which failed to respect their own bayan wizare]; and the work that the tayyar did on the ground to help the refugees.
In other words, the Hizb-Amal alliance that represents the majority of Shiites, and Aoun that represents >70% of Christians are both out of the loop of decision making.
In short, Aoun has not shown any alliance with Syria. Aoun refuses to accuse Syria of killing Hariri because it is the investigator's job to do that and prove it. [I personally do believe that the Syrians were involved, and I hope that the investigative committee is able to prove it, and that they pay the price]. [I would also like to point out that I, and almost all Lebanese, also believe for example that Geagea was the one who killed Tony Frangieh and his family[among other crimes], and I hope one day he will go back to the prison cell he was in, but I also would like an investigative committee to prove that before he is sentenced to life in prison].
The other issue is the Aoun presidency thing. Aoun has proven that he represents >70% of Christians [and I think the next election will prove this has increased]. Subsequently, he is simply the only candidate for the presidency; just like the Hariri movement is the current sole representative for the Sunnis and have control over the PM position. I am personally against our political system, since I cannot even run for president even if I wanted to, but it is what it is, and until there are enough of us to change it, we have to deal with it as is, because not doing so leads to anarchy.
And anarchy is what we have now! as a result of the March 14 alliance not respecting our political system, by shutting out representatives of 61% of the voters [not parliament] in the last elections.
One last thing: the wedge between the Christians!! That was the result of the elections, nothing to do with Aoun! Political groups like LF and Phalanges as well as individuals like Mouawad or Fares Souaid, discovered that they were unpopular even in their own villages or strongholds [well maybe not Bchare, but everywhere else]. Since that moment, they have not stopped antagonizing and provoking Aoun. [just look at what happened when Pierre Gemayel was killed: Aoun's pictures were burnt and he was sweared at in almost every TV shot I saw during that time, not the Syrians which supposidly killed him].

note: I do not know who Angry Arab is.

 
At Sunday, January 28, 2007 10:10:00 AM, Blogger Lazarus said...

the problem is, liminal, is that we continue to assume that the best option for lebanon is to have the christians unite, the sunnis unite, the shia unite, ad infinitum ...

such formulas of sectarian groupings will also lead to the current situation. it's just a question of when.

 
At Sunday, January 28, 2007 5:06:00 PM, Blogger Rampurple said...

I agree with lazarus on this one. The so-called leaders only care about their own selves and people are so focused on sectarian groups that they don't notice Lebanon.
It kills me that people kept saying the they will remain united as Lebanese and only to find sects finding each other. Over a million people once made a vow... it seems so long ago now... Christians, Muslims, Druze, to remain united for ever and ever under the party of Lebanon.
Allah yerham those days.

What sickens me more is that even after seeing the risk of how horrible things can get people still debate about if Aoun or Geagea is better!

 
At Sunday, January 28, 2007 10:45:00 PM, Blogger Xylocaine said...

IT'S time the army implemented marshal law...and took over the streets and cleard everybody out...plus some media stations ought to be closed for spilling "oil on fire"... although hizballah leaders may be somehow peaceful in their speeches atleast...manar tv and website has been playing such a dirty role... there's a differnece between reporting news and fabricating and spicing stories...i mean they ask you to hate them...
I dont support any party...but manar tv walks in your house and asks you to hate them...and they present themselves as believers..and peace lovers...how is that when they wash the brains of their public..who many of them...by the way..only watch manar...and so end up with one point of view...

So goes for NBN and future TV...they should all be banned from news...but almanar is leading in that department...
If i was shite...and according to manar "dirty news"..i would hit the streets now and kill every sunni and durzi...

Luckily i'm not even in Lebanon!
Peace to you all...hope the army takes over...and shuts everybody up.

 
At Sunday, January 28, 2007 11:05:00 PM, Blogger Xylocaine said...

I'm refering to these two silly articles:

http://www.manartv.com.lb/NewsSite/NewsDetails.aspx?id=10247&language=ar

http://www.manartv.com.lb/NewsSite/NewsDetails.aspx?id=10252&language=ar

With such news...how will there be peace and reconciliaton!

 
At Monday, January 29, 2007 9:40:00 AM, Blogger MMMMMMMMM said...

Hisham FYI Aoun wanted 5 ministers,

Just so we don't twist facts

 
At Monday, January 29, 2007 12:42:00 PM, Blogger francois said...

Liminal, one question to add:

why should we call the 14 of march mov "anti syrians" when they support khaddam's arrival to power in syria...

just check out whose khaddam during the civil war

 
At Monday, February 05, 2007 11:01:00 PM, Blogger Leafless Eve said...

Referring to the question at the end of this post: Soon, Iran will no longer be an "axis". So you no longer need to ask this question.

 
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