Tough times ahead

Following my previous post a friend volunteered to alert me to two interesting points and one sickeningly disturbing point.

The first point is that that Hasan Sabe’ resigned in February. (I am not sure that Sabe’s resignation is effective, as it has not been accepted.)

The second point is an article in the constitution which necessitates that all sects be represented in the government, so Lahoud seems right when he says the government has no constitutional integrity at this point. (I think this can be easily remedied by appointing some other Shia ministers)

The third point is that the number of ministers in the government could also be decreased by assassination. I decided, after much consideration and with some reserve, to look at this very disturbing point.

While a strong point to make and be very cautious of, it is unlikely, in my opinion, that a minister will be targeted. I personally do not think that Hezbollah, as some may think, would resort to it.

I also think that whoever carried out those assassinations and various acts of terror of the last months will now target a very high-profile Sunni cleric, Mount Lebanon Mofti Jouzou. Whether it is the saboteurs of the Syrian regime or the schism-in-Islamic-sects creators of Mossad/CIA, this man seems to be the most logical next target. The word in the street is that he is in grave danger.

I say this because he has repeatedly attacked Syria, Iran, Hezbollah, and others with vigor unprecedented of a cleric, and this has created even more sectarian tension that will probably explode if he is attacked. This sectarian significance is the main reason I do not rule out the second option, i.e. that he will be targeted by someone aiming to ignite a sectarian strife. The violence that may ensue will probably be small-scale if compared to the possible outcomes of assassinating a figure like Jumblat, Nasrallah, or Saad Hariri, but another factor here is that Jouzo’s security precautions are, most probably, virtually non-existent, and he is currently very outspoken.

To make this clear, I personally liken this period to the period just before the late Gebran Tweini was assassinated. A few weeks before the assassination, Housam Housam said that Tweini had asked him for the names of bodyguards of Hasan Nasrallah. Bashar Assad had also given a speech where he attacked “some Lebanese media outlets acting as agents for the enemies”. That also seemed like an admittance of responsibility for the attempt on May Chidiac’s life. I remember having a discussion after Gebran’s assassination with a good friend, himself a journalist and a blogger, saying that he should not have come back and he was not supposed to return then, while his life was in danger. I still am shocked by that return.

Back then, I shared my analysis on Gebran's possible targetting with an old friend, and now I think it can be made public as a good insight into the current situation.

Obviously, I sincerely wish that this does not happen. I also hope that things will go well in Lebanon and a peaceful transition of power, especially the Presidency, takes place in the near-to-medium future. On the other hand, I do not allow my hopes to block any discussion of the situation at hand, in an attempt to shed some light on it. God help Lebanon in the tough times ahead.