Nineteen Bottles of Beer On The Wall

If I were in Hizbollah's place, I wouldn't consider anti-government rallies just yet or give up on constitutionally-overthrowing the government. I would try to get three more ministers to resign, hence causing the government to disband because one third will have resigned. The first one would be Yacoub Sarraf, Lahoud’s last man in the government. That leaves us with two.

As for who those two ministers could be, I think many of the current (and former and coming) Lebanese officials are unprincipled selfish low-lives who would jump a sinking boat or sell to the highest bidder. The greed and aspirations, or lack thereof, are two things that can be manipulated to lure ministers into resigning.

My first candidate is Elias Murr. I think there is very little risk to his political career in his resignation because there is nothing more that Future & Co can give him. His sect prevents any further aspirations, and he is definitely unprincipled enough to be bought by someone with enough money. The question is: can the Iranians outbid the Saudis if the latter decide to backup Saad Hariri?

The second candidate is Mohammad Safadi. This man has major aspirations to be Prime Minister one of those days, and there are simply too many people (Saniora, Saad Hariri, Fatfat…) queuing before him if he wants to go in through Future’s door. He also had many problems with the others in the ruling financial junta regarding some “distribution of contracts” in the airport.

There are other candidates, obviously. Charles Rizk could be one of them, but only when he realizes that he will never be a compromise presidential candidate, and he obviously is not presidential material. Unfortunately, being Lahoud’s friend, he will take to long to realize it.

So, just a thought before hitting the street. I think if this happens, a new Saniora government will be assembled with a different lineup.

Or I could just be ranting afte a long night out in Beirut.