12.11.06

Nineteen Bottles of Beer On The Wall

If I were in Hizbollah's place, I wouldn't consider anti-government rallies just yet or give up on constitutionally-overthrowing the government. I would try to get three more ministers to resign, hence causing the government to disband because one third will have resigned. The first one would be Yacoub Sarraf, Lahoud’s last man in the government. That leaves us with two.

As for who those two ministers could be, I think many of the current (and former and coming) Lebanese officials are unprincipled selfish low-lives who would jump a sinking boat or sell to the highest bidder. The greed and aspirations, or lack thereof, are two things that can be manipulated to lure ministers into resigning.

My first candidate is Elias Murr. I think there is very little risk to his political career in his resignation because there is nothing more that Future & Co can give him. His sect prevents any further aspirations, and he is definitely unprincipled enough to be bought by someone with enough money. The question is: can the Iranians outbid the Saudis if the latter decide to backup Saad Hariri?

The second candidate is Mohammad Safadi. This man has major aspirations to be Prime Minister one of those days, and there are simply too many people (Saniora, Saad Hariri, Fatfat…) queuing before him if he wants to go in through Future’s door. He also had many problems with the others in the ruling financial junta regarding some “distribution of contracts” in the airport.

There are other candidates, obviously. Charles Rizk could be one of them, but only when he realizes that he will never be a compromise presidential candidate, and he obviously is not presidential material. Unfortunately, being Lahoud’s friend, he will take to long to realize it.

So, just a thought before hitting the street. I think if this happens, a new Saniora government will be assembled with a different lineup.

Or I could just be ranting afte a long night out in Beirut.

8 Comments:

At Sunday, November 12, 2006 5:06:00 AM, Blogger Lazarus said...

i don't know if safadi is a valid candidate ya hassan, but considering you have been right more often than not, i'll wait until i'm back from a long night out before i judge :D

 
At Sunday, November 12, 2006 10:28:00 AM, Blogger Hassan said...

Laz,

I am not saying that they will do this. I am just saying that it is better than taking to the streets in this tense situation.

As for Safadi, I do think he entertains hopes for the third presidency. The opposition already scratched upon those hopes by saying he could be a good compromise Premier Minister after any early elections. I am sure his aspirations are long-term so he could wait a few years, but they are not long term enough to wait for Saad Hariri to be over with it.

 
At Sunday, November 12, 2006 2:47:00 PM, Blogger hillz said...

ya hassan,
i think HA will give the resignation its time before heading to street.
as for charles rizk: shoo 3am te7keh ya zalameh! essabeh so7eh dameero :P
alot of events yet to come..

 
At Sunday, November 12, 2006 3:39:00 PM, Blogger BOB said...

small correction

you need a third plus one to resign for the goverment to collapse...

 
At Sunday, November 12, 2006 4:37:00 PM, Blogger JoseyWales said...

bob

I thought the gvmnt had collapsed a year and a half ago. ;)

 
At Sunday, November 12, 2006 8:41:00 PM, Blogger Charles Malik said...

Interesting post.

Going to the streets is the worst thing Hezbollah could do. Forcing down the government is a much better option.

Of course, to do that, they would most likely have to change some of their demands, and give quite a bit more to other factions. That would mean that they would be in the position 14 March is currently in.

There is no way for any group to take complete control of Lebanon. It's all about who can control the balance through various techniques: money, corruption, threats, foreign alliances...

Hezbollah could take the top hand, but that would mean they would have to stop being so incredibly self-righteous, and would have to give sometimes. Even the Syrians gave a little.

 
At Sunday, November 12, 2006 11:37:00 PM, Blogger lebanese_student said...

Hassan, I don't know if I should laugh or be worried that you are basically supporting bribery in our government. I have faith that the ministers won't jump to the highest paying bidder, especially when that bidder happens to be a terrorist organization.

 
At Monday, November 13, 2006 1:14:00 AM, Blogger Hassan said...

Charles Malik,

"Going to the streets is the worst thing Hezbollah could do. Forcing down the government is a much better option."

I agree.

Lebanese Student,

We have some things in common. I can neither laugh nor be worried over your faith in our ministers. After all, your being a student brings along some assets and leeway.

As for what you can do. Feel free to laugh; worry never brings anything. For your own sake, however, a good start would be to be less patronizing, re-read the post, and stop putting words in my mouth.

 

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