The Way I See It

I apologize for the long post but my skin was scratching.

This is the way I see it.

Israel launched a war on Lebanon with the objective of liquidating Hezbollah. The war was endorsed, facilitated and encouraged by the government of the United States and by its allies, including England, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan. It was thought that a massive military campaign relying on overwhelming air power with limited ground incursions would achieve this goal in a relatively short amount of time.

A large and heterogeneous political group in Lebanon was an active (and powerless) player in this war. Various discourses ranging from implicit backing to timid objection were assigned to different members of the group. The fact remains that key figures in March 14 thought that the Israeli war would rid it of its main opponent in the internal political scene. Denying this reality amounts to cheer ignorance or extreme hypocrisy. There are no conspiracy theories here: the narrow aspirations of a local group intersected with a larger regional project.

The war failed. It was clear from the first days that Hezbollah was ready for such a ferocious battle. Israel took unprecedented casualties; Mirkava tanks were torched by the dozens; Israeli troops failed to progress beyond a few miles from the border; Al-Manar television did not go off-air for a single second; no high-ranking Hezbollah official was murdered; Hassan Nasrallah regularly appeared on television, and consistently managed to upstage the Israeli propaganda machine.

The image of an all-mighty and invincible Israel was severely shaken. While Israeli public opinion was in disarray over this stunning failure, while Olmert was struggling for his political future, while members of the American establishment were debating this unexpected turn of events, many voices in Lebanon rose declaring a Hezbollah defeat. Though true that Lebanon’s infrastructure was severely damaged and that the country suffered incredible losses due to the pornography of the Israeli war machine, speaking of a Hezbollah defeat is stunningly absurd. The fact that those Lebanese voices (online and elsewhere) had to routinely rely on articles written by the most demented neo-conservatives and by Israelis falling to the right of the Likud party says something about the credibility of such a statement.

Not only did Hezbollah hold on and manage to politically and militarily survive this attack (already a great feat); it also humiliated the Israeli army and forced it to stop its aggression without any of its objectives being accomplished: The two soldiers were not returned; missiles kept raining on Northen Israel until the last second of the war; and most importantly, Hezbollah was now stronger than ever.

Hezbollah’s popularity within the body of the Shiite sect was already overwhelming before the war and did not really need additional demonstration. However, due to a combination of traditional sectarian sense of belonging and intense and unshakable belief in a just cause, the level of passionate support and identification with the party reached never seen before heights during the war. It was obvious that hundreds of thousands of people were ready to sacrifice everything to achieve victory. And from where they stand, they did achieve victory.

Although the backing of its own people was guaranteed, Hezbollah would not have held on had it not received the support of significant internal allies. A heterogeneous body (the opponents of March 14) stood by the resistance. The reasons are varied and are not always honorable, but the fact remains. The Communist party, the Syrian Nationalist Party, Suleiman Frangiyeh, Najah Wakim and Salim El Hoss, to name a few, stood by Hezbollah. But the support of all these personalities did not amount to a hill of beans compared to the position of Michel Aoun.

Michel Aoun gave invaluable cover to Hezbollah. I can’t see how they will ever forget his firm position, and that is March 14's loss. Michel Aoun was pushed towards Hezbollah months ago due to March 14's insistence on marginalizing him and excluding him from the government. The Aoun-Hezbollah coalition was formidable enough to effectively split the country in two. It was surreal to hear officials from the Free Patriotic Movement, many of whom used to be members of the traditional Christian right-wing, praise the resistance and vehemently attack Israel, while on the other side “leftist” ex-members of the “national movement” were barely stopping short of praying Olmert to do a better job.

In any case, the war ended. The mandate of the proposed international peacekeeping force is fuzzy and ill-defined. Israel failed, and the failure is apparent in the ambiguity around the implementation of resolution 1701. The feeling in the Hezbollah camp is two-sided: unmeasurable joy at a historical victory, and deep anger and resentment towards those who did not stand by them. Michel Aoun is also ready to collect. The power balance in the country had changed, and voices for a government of national unity were raised.

Unsurprisingly, March 14 refused the calls. Instead, we heard the same old rhetoric: Hezbollah must be disarmed; the defense of the land is the duty of the army; the government should come up with a defense strategy; Hezbollah is working outside the legal institutions of law; Hezbollah are Iranian agents; Aoun is an ally of Syria; and so on. Just if a war had not just happened. Just if last month was just a bad dream.

It is slightly painful to see how utterly disconnected from reality some people can be.
It is pathetic to witness powerless and opportunistic politicians demanding to disarm Hezbollah just days after Israel with all its might and barbarism failed to do so.
It is pathetic to witness the call for a national defense strategy when we just witnessed two glorious examples of said strategy, first in Marjeoun and then in the government’s stellar handling of the blockade.
It is pathetic to hear talk about allegiances with Syria and Iran, when March 14 are practically treating the UN troops as their own local police force.
It is pathetic to hear Aoun being accused of sleeping with the Syrians when the discourse of March 14 has never been so identical to that of the most hawkish voices in the US and Israeli administrations.
It is pathetic to refer to Iran and Syria as “foreign interference” while the country that just nearly destroyed everything we have is a key member of that most pathetic euphemistic construct in history: “The International Community”.

Guys, fine, you are entitled to your opinions, and so are we, but we cannot shut our brains off. That is not allowed. That would be the end of everything.

March 14 in their dream land still believe that the international community will hand them Lebanon on a golden plate. That’s the same international community that torched the country and didn’t blink when its supposed Lebanese allies started to whine. They still believe they can run the county on their own.

The problem of March 14 at this juncture is not Hezbollah. Hezbollah are already in the government. The problem is Michel Aoun.

Saad Hariri is the backbone of March 14. Walid Jumblat is his main beneficiary. Hariri and Jumblat achieved the parliamentary majority through a well-tailored electoral law. They guaranteed power at the expense of the Christian representation in the traditional Lebanese sense. The Christian deputies in March 14 were weak back in 2005, and relied on the votes of the Hariri supporters (and Hezbollah’s, irony of ironies). These Christian deputies are only weaker today. In contrast, Michel Aoun sweeped the Christian regions and imposed himself as the main Christian leader. Current attempts by March 14 to pump up Samir Geagea’s popularity and ignore Aoun’s power are useless. Aoun is overwhelmingly more popular, and they know it. Samir Geagea is weak because he depends on another Sectarian leader. Aoun is strong because he stands on equal grounds with Nasrallah in the Hezbollah/FPM alliance. That’s the litmus test in Lebanese politics.

The call for government change is fueled by a Christian and Shiite feeling of misrepresentation. Aoun and Hezbollah represent a portion of the Lebanese population that cannot be ignored without dire consequences.

It does not matter how many articles Mouna Fayyad publishes in Annahar. It does not matter how many obscure anti-Hezbollah Shiite personalities May Chediac manages to dig up. It does not matter how much flirting March 14 throws Nabih Berri’s way. Hezbollah are the biggest party in Lebanon; they are currently at the peak of their prestige and popularity and it seems they are here to stay for a while. Michel Aoun is an extremely popular leader, and his popularity is only increasing. Let us forget about our opinions concerning these political forces, and let’s try to be pragmatic.

People, it is time to wake up. Let us put our ideological and tribal differences aside for one moment. Let us admit there are red lines we must never cross. Let us agree that the only worthy thing is guaranteeing that Lebanese don’t start killing each other again. Let’s stop debating who is a Syrian agent and who is an American agent for a moment.

Where is March 14 leading us by refusing to change the government? Don’t give me the drivel about legitimacy and parliamentary majority. This is not Norway, this is Lebanon. It is all about equilibrium and balance. Half of the Lebanese population feels it is outside the political establishment. Let them in before they get out of hand.

Elections will eventually come. March 14 will try to design a law that guarantees them the majority. But there is no way round it; the country is too small. If Aoun got 70% of the Christian vote last time, he is going to get 85% next time. Hezbollah’s participation will surely be frightening and will break all records, if so much is at stake.

The problem of course is that there are no elections coming up. Elections would have restored the balance. Instead we are heading towards uncertain times.

Certain individuals who are mistakenly pleased with their non-existing intelligence will surely ask: “If Hezbollah does not like the government, why don’t they just resign?”

Wlik tislamli ma allazzak.

Ya habibi, don’t you know how things work? Who would represent the Shiites then? I’m sure you’d love Hezbollah to resign and hand the whole country over to you, but be careful what you wish for. Hezbollah are still controlling their supporters. Once this gets to the street, there is no turning back.

The two sides are tense and hungry and evenly matched. Release the tension before it is too late. Before we start getting nostalgic for the days of the Israeli war.