1.8.06

Note to Self: We Are Going to Win

Israel is going to lose this one.

Hezbollah has surprised Israel, the United States and even Walid Jumblat. After 20 days of savage bombing, their leadership remains intact, their military operation is still highly functional, and missiles continue to fall on Northern Israel. The air campaign did not achieve any of its goals.

The ground campaign was also a fiasco. The whole world witnessed the IDF’s huge losses in Maroon El Ras and Bent Jbeil. Hezbollah took on one of the most sophisticated armies in the world and forced it to retreat without accomplishing anything.

Most impressive was Hezbollah’s performance on the media front. Nasrallah deliberately stayed away from bombast, and weighted his speeches with carefully calibrated messages to the Lebanese, the Arab public and the Israelis. Hezbollah are appearing as the straightforward party in this conflict, whereas the Israeli propaganda machine is struggling.

Israel shot itself in the foot with the pornography in Qana yesterday. The pro-American March 14 politicians seem cornered. They are backing off and changing their rhetoric (except Walid Jumblat of course). Fouad Senioura actually called for an immediate ceasefire before negotiations, which is exactly Hezbollah’s demand.

It seems that Bush has given Olmert 10 more days to accomplish something. But what is he going to do? He’s out of options. What does this Hezbollah-free buffer zone of 2 Km mean? Does it mean emptying the Southern villages of its entire people? Does it mean completely destroying those villages? What is the purpose of pushing the border a couple of kilometers back? What does it change?

The international peacekeeping force seems like such a distant possibility now. Who is going to send troops while the conflict rages on? The existence of such a force would have to be negotiated after a ceasefire (note the French position today).

Assuming it is still standing once a ceasefire is agreed upon, Hezbollah will be able to negotiate from a position of strength. Nothing will be done without its approval. That would be an immense victory.

I think that if the country holds on for two more weeks (or however long it takes), we would be heading for something historical. The United States will try its best to impose conditions to its advantage, but imagine if we can negotiate with the resistance still intact (no, actually with the resistance strengthened). Who knows what we can get back.

We owe it to all the people who died and suffered to hold on. All this death and misery cannot be for nothing.

24 Comments:

At Tuesday, August 01, 2006 4:26:00 AM, Blogger Frank said...

The Lebanese people have obviously been seen by the world as victims to terror, while the U.S. and its puppet have been revealed in their true form. May those in power seek Wisdom in their position.

 
At Tuesday, August 01, 2006 4:36:00 AM, Blogger CMAR II said...

Interesting that you identify yourself and by extension Lebanon with evil work of Hizballah.

Hizballah is an alien parasite in Lebanon. It feeds off of the Lebanese, hides in its bowels, debilitates it, and (as you can now see) seeks to eventually destroy it...all for its own benefit. Hizballah cares nothing for the Lebanese whether they be in Beirut or Qana. They care a bit more for Syria and Iran who supply their daily bread and bombs.

They brought this misery on Lebanon thru their irresponsible adventurism. How was invading Israel and killing/abducting Israeli soldiers supposed to benefit Lebanon??

If Israel (were it capable and so inclined) were to swarm over the whole of Lebanon and kill every Hizbollah agent, the Lebanese would owe them the deepest gratitude. Lebanon will never be free as long as the Hezbollah parasite curls within its bowels.

It is not Israel that oppresses the Lebonese, but (Arab) Syria and (Persian) Iran through their proxies like Hizbollah.

Kill the parasite and Israel will pay no more notice to Lebanon.

 
At Tuesday, August 01, 2006 4:39:00 AM, Blogger Lazarus said...

i'm sorry, but i fail to see how exactly "we are going to win." there will be no winners in this war.

 
At Tuesday, August 01, 2006 4:43:00 AM, Blogger jij said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

 
At Tuesday, August 01, 2006 4:44:00 AM, Blogger jij said...

winning means holding on. Negotiations will come eventually, and we will need something to negotiate with

 
At Tuesday, August 01, 2006 5:09:00 AM, Blogger jooj said...

Although it is hard to measure victory, I think Israel herself will have to admit defeat at some point, in some form or another. For the first time ever in Israel's history, they will have to negotiate before fulfilling any of their set goals. And that, to many, is a well deserved big victory.

 
At Tuesday, August 01, 2006 5:18:00 AM, Blogger callipyge said...

While it's cool to see the Israeli army not having it easy, I cannot rejoice at a stronger Hezb. That will make it all the more difficult for us to disarm them when this is all over.
Like Lazarus said, there will be no winners in this war.

 
At Tuesday, August 01, 2006 8:05:00 AM, Blogger Ryan said...

There are bloggers here in America who are spreading the lie that the dead children killed in Qana were staged and that Hezbollah actually killed them. I hope you will visit her site and correct the lies she is spreading to Americans:
http://americanprincess.mu.nu

 
At Tuesday, August 01, 2006 10:05:00 AM, Blogger David said...

The official stated aims of the Israeli army are to destroy Hezbollah. However, in practical terms, I doubt Israel really cares who runs Lebanon. All that really matters is whether rockets are being launched from Lebanese territory at Israel.

Eventually, a ceasefire will be called, and then we will find out who has truly "won" this war, and who has truly "lost". Here are my predictions:

1) Hezbollah - "win"

They will not have to disarm, and will be able to maintain their state within a state situation that they desire.

2) Israel - "win"

The rockets from Hezbollah will stop. Hezbollah will obvious threaten to continue the attack until the precious Shebaa farms and/or prisoners and or Palestinians are freed, but it will remain as verbal rhetoric. Hezbollah won't pull a stunt like this for a long time.

3) Lebanese - "lose"

Economy destroyed, Hezbollah still in power. I'm not sure if they could have stopped this from happening, and I'm not sure if they can stop a repeat 10 years from now, but I wish them the best of luck.

 
At Tuesday, August 01, 2006 6:40:00 PM, Blogger Xylocaine said...

jij:

we actually had the chance to negotiate when resistance was intact!!

 
At Tuesday, August 01, 2006 8:22:00 PM, Blogger Fakty said...

Interesting to note that the country who started 2 world wars, voted no to cease fire during EU's emergency meeting today. It was not a supprise that England voted no, they have shown again and again that they are unable to take decisions not prior approved by US. However, for Germany to vote no proves that their newly elected "Kansler" is willing to step over dead bodies to please US.

UN was created with a great hope for the International community to work together and show unity. However, the value of UN becomes questionable when 3 to 4 countries are able to force their will on the International community.

 
At Wednesday, August 02, 2006 12:14:00 AM, Blogger JoseyWales said...

Yeah Jij, can you make a V sign and smile like ugly fucking Arafat??

What victory are you talking about? Israel is back in the South, 700,000 are displaced, the economy is destroyed....

And if Hezbo takes over (i.e. more influence) idiots like you, when you go back there, and Hezbo cheerleaders on Lebanese TV will be the first to have their voices silenced. And that will be the least of your worries

 
At Wednesday, August 02, 2006 1:21:00 AM, Blogger jij said...

Josey, I applaud your grace and elegance. You never disappoint. And I am sorry the war is not going your way until now. "Hezbo" (you remind of the LFs who call Palestinians "palestos", you probably do that too) is an integral part of our country. You have to live with that, or I'm afraid you'll get an ulcer. Do you want to get an ulcer, Josey?

 
At Wednesday, August 02, 2006 4:04:00 AM, Blogger Ghassan said...

JIJ,
The military wing of HA does not belong in any democratic independent and sovereign state. It cannot be a part of any self respecting country. The politicl , social and philosophical beliefs are a completely different issue.

No one can deny the validity of the point made by Josey. How can you possibly speak about a victory? The state might never ever recover and you have the guts to speak about victory? I am afraid that this for Lebanon might be similar to the six days war. It took the Arab street years to admit defeat and comprehend the severity of the losses inflicted on its armies. The same scenario repeated itself in 1973, actually Egyptian War Museums present the 1973 as a victory for thei armed forces that were practically decimated by the end of the conflice. Unfortunately you seem to be advocating the same methodology. If we would refuse to admit our defeat then that is a victory. Frankly that is weird logic and if we persist on deceiving ourselves then we have no one to blame for our problems except ourselves.

 
At Wednesday, August 02, 2006 4:21:00 AM, Blogger Ghassan said...

jij,
I was under the impression that i have already composed a response to your post. As it is not there I will not repeat myself ( I hate that) but suffice it to say dream on dude.
Josey is right about this. If this is a victory then I wonder how a defeat would look like. There is nothing wrong in speculating but when we start to confuse reality with wishful thinking then we have a big problem. This is just as much of a victory as the wars in 1973 and 1967!!! It is time for a reality check my freind.

 
At Wednesday, August 02, 2006 4:53:00 AM, Blogger jij said...

ghassan dear, if by "state" you mean the coalition of hariri-jumblat-lf then you know where to put that state. In your delusional mind, this war is between Hezbollah and the legitimate Lebanese state. No, this is a war between those who wish to endorse the American-Israeli plan for the region regardless of its dreadful consequences, and those who do not. The problem with people like you is that they think they can apply what works elsewhere in Lebanon, just like the Americans did in Iraq. Lebanon is not Norway so please stop repeating the same "legitimacy" drivel you write everywhere. You treat this collection of corrupt criminals who are willing to bet on Israel destroying their local enemies as a "state", and the people who are defending the country as outlaws. You hide behind the veneer of "rationality" and "realism", but you are as despicable as your cowboy friend. Thank god Lebanon is the way it is, or else it would fall into the hands of people like you.

 
At Wednesday, August 02, 2006 5:15:00 AM, Blogger Ghassan said...

Jij,
It is my fault for having assumed that we were having a mature dialogue. But it looks like I was mistaken.

 
At Wednesday, August 02, 2006 5:49:00 AM, Blogger jij said...

Ghassan,
I think my post holds a clear response to you. You don't have to respond if your feelings are hurt. I trust you will get over it.

 
At Wednesday, August 02, 2006 9:22:00 AM, Blogger Lazarus said...

"Thank god Lebanon is the way it is"

and what way exactly is that?

 
At Wednesday, August 02, 2006 7:19:00 PM, Blogger huckster said...

jij,

what is the american-israeli plan for the region?

as an israeli, i can assure you we would like nothing better than peace: israelis having humus in beirut, lebanese visiting jerusalem sites, and that goes not only for lebanon but for any other country in the region, including iran.

i don't think anybody has a plan of imposing this - we are just praying for the time all peoples of the region will want the same, and all goverments will adhere.

unfortunately this is not the case currently. while i'm certain that the majority of the lebanese people are peace loving, i cannot understand the approach you're expressing:
"You treat this collection of corrupt criminals who are willing to bet on Israel destroying their local enemies as a "state", and the people who are defending the country as outlaws"

who are the HZ defending lebanon from? israel? israel has no interest in attacking lebanon. we have done nothing for the last 6 years while facing continous HZ provocations, including shooting at israeli border towns.

is this how HZ is "protecting" lebanon? by attacking civilians?

i truely feel sorry for the lebanese for being played like puppets by syria and iran, who fund and run HZ.

 
At Thursday, August 03, 2006 4:10:00 AM, Blogger Enriqueta said...

seiously are you kidding, if Hezzbolah is still armed after this is over i will personally be calling my senator and reps and making sure not one single tax dollar goes to Lebonon.

That from a somone who loves the Lebonese people...your supporting the wrong team friend.
blessings,
Eriqueta

 
At Thursday, August 03, 2006 5:42:00 AM, Blogger Nachum from Israel said...

Jij,
I don't ave space here to get into disputing one-by-one your claims that the Hezbollah has not been weakened militarily. This is plainly wrong. In fact, the Hezbollah has been decimated militarily, with more than 300 fighters dead by now, including more than 50 fro their elite unit; most of their long-range rockets were destroyed; their headquarters throughour Lebanon were bombed out (in Beirut, Tyre, Baalbeq, and in many other places); and all their bunkers in south Lebanon are now being bombed out, and the IDF will finish blowing them up by the end of this week. This is a terrible military defeat to the Hezbollah.

BUT, I do agree with you that Lebanon, as a nation, is going to win this war -- although by "winning" I have in mind something different that you do. What I mean is that after this bloody conflict is over, and the Lebanese national army + strong international force will be deployed, Lebanon will finally achieve a status of a fully independent state.

After all, until now the Lebanese army did not have a monopoly over armaments in the country (and such a monopoly is a BASIC requirement in any normal country). Moreover, the foreign-relations of Lebanon were ALSO not determined by the Lebanese government, but rather by the Iranians who decided to flip the switch on the Hezbollah because of Iranian internal reasons (their nuclear weapons crisis with the UN), and push Nasrallah to start this conflict. So, because I firmly believe that after this war the Hezbollah will be contained, Lebanon will thus finally gain its independence -- military independence and foreign-relations independence -- and this will certainly be a MAJOR victory to Lebanon.

As an Israeli, I wish you all the best of luck to WIN this war, and to finally become a truly free country. Your victory will be our victory.

Be safe,
Nachum

 
At Friday, August 04, 2006 1:36:00 PM, Blogger Exadios said...

"as an israeli, i can assure you we would like nothing better than peace":

So you are now ready to withdraw behind the 1967 lines? You are now ready to remove yourselves from the West Bank and Golan (including the "Farms")? You are now ready to exchange prisoners? You are now ready to supply maps of the mine fields? If so then you are ready for peace. But I suspect it is otherwise.

 
At Monday, August 07, 2006 5:58:00 AM, Blogger Frank said...

To cmar II, I identify myself with all those that are oppressed, I find that not interesting, but natural. Its too late to try to identify yourself with the rightous.The host, as well as the parasite will perish.

 

Post a Comment

<< Home