Note to Self: We Are Going to Win

Israel is going to lose this one.

Hezbollah has surprised Israel, the United States and even Walid Jumblat. After 20 days of savage bombing, their leadership remains intact, their military operation is still highly functional, and missiles continue to fall on Northern Israel. The air campaign did not achieve any of its goals.

The ground campaign was also a fiasco. The whole world witnessed the IDF’s huge losses in Maroon El Ras and Bent Jbeil. Hezbollah took on one of the most sophisticated armies in the world and forced it to retreat without accomplishing anything.

Most impressive was Hezbollah’s performance on the media front. Nasrallah deliberately stayed away from bombast, and weighted his speeches with carefully calibrated messages to the Lebanese, the Arab public and the Israelis. Hezbollah are appearing as the straightforward party in this conflict, whereas the Israeli propaganda machine is struggling.

Israel shot itself in the foot with the pornography in Qana yesterday. The pro-American March 14 politicians seem cornered. They are backing off and changing their rhetoric (except Walid Jumblat of course). Fouad Senioura actually called for an immediate ceasefire before negotiations, which is exactly Hezbollah’s demand.

It seems that Bush has given Olmert 10 more days to accomplish something. But what is he going to do? He’s out of options. What does this Hezbollah-free buffer zone of 2 Km mean? Does it mean emptying the Southern villages of its entire people? Does it mean completely destroying those villages? What is the purpose of pushing the border a couple of kilometers back? What does it change?

The international peacekeeping force seems like such a distant possibility now. Who is going to send troops while the conflict rages on? The existence of such a force would have to be negotiated after a ceasefire (note the French position today).

Assuming it is still standing once a ceasefire is agreed upon, Hezbollah will be able to negotiate from a position of strength. Nothing will be done without its approval. That would be an immense victory.

I think that if the country holds on for two more weeks (or however long it takes), we would be heading for something historical. The United States will try its best to impose conditions to its advantage, but imagine if we can negotiate with the resistance still intact (no, actually with the resistance strengthened). Who knows what we can get back.

We owe it to all the people who died and suffered to hold on. All this death and misery cannot be for nothing.