Note to Self: We Are Going to Win
Hezbollah has surprised
The ground campaign was also a fiasco. The whole world witnessed the IDF’s huge losses in Maroon El Ras and Bent Jbeil. Hezbollah took on one of the most sophisticated armies in the world and forced it to retreat without accomplishing anything.
Most impressive was Hezbollah’s performance on the media front. Nasrallah deliberately stayed away from bombast, and weighted his speeches with carefully calibrated messages to the Lebanese, the Arab public and the Israelis. Hezbollah are appearing as the straightforward party in this conflict, whereas the Israeli propaganda machine is struggling.
It seems that Bush has given Olmert 10 more days to accomplish something. But what is he going to do? He’s out of options. What does this Hezbollah-free buffer zone of 2 Km mean? Does it mean emptying the Southern villages of its entire people? Does it mean completely destroying those villages? What is the purpose of pushing the border a couple of kilometers back? What does it change?
The international peacekeeping force seems like such a distant possibility now. Who is going to send troops while the conflict rages on? The existence of such a force would have to be negotiated after a ceasefire (note the French position today).
Assuming it is still standing once a ceasefire is agreed upon, Hezbollah will be able to negotiate from a position of strength. Nothing will be done without its approval. That would be an immense victory.
I think that if the country holds on for two more weeks (or however long it takes), we would be heading for something historical. The
We owe it to all the people who died and suffered to hold on. All this death and misery cannot be for nothing.