31.7.07

Electoral Analysis Part II

Now to the numbers, but before that a brief sum up of the situation: Tensions are sky high in the Metn area. I fear that the elections will be wrought with violence and increased divisions between the two main factions (especially on the Christian side)

Meanwhile the army had to reinforce its deployment in the Metn and Beirut to enforce order, so between the North and South deployment and the border patrols with Syria the army is spread very, very thin.

The numbers: I collected these numbers from several sources, and are mostly based on the 2005 election and my own analysis. One of my main sources is Abdo Saad, a political analyst specialized in electoral statistics, but who heavily leans toward Aoun and his allies, and writes in the Al-Akhbar newspaper, which is backed by Hezblollah,. (Check out his articles on the elections here and here).

The main forces:

Kateb (the Phanlages) and their allies (14 March, LF…); Aoun and his supporters ( Baath party and SSNP both syria’s allies. I never thought I would ever say that Aoun is the ally of these two parties that have specialized in following Syria’s orders and killing Lebanese …); The Tachnak ( an Armenian party); and Michel Murr

The numbers:

31000 for the Kateb and their allies

30000 for Aoun and his allies

7000 Tachnak

13000 for Murr

Most analysts agree that Aoun lost some of his support among Christians, putting a number to that loss is pretty difficult. But I feel that one can project a loss of 10% to 20%, and that is for his whole bloc, which includes his core base of support plus many independent and 14 March leaner who choose Aoun, in the last election, as a response for Joumblatt’s alliance with Hezbollah in 2005.Therefore, I will go for a 15% drop in Aoun’s support. And I will add 15% to the 14 March coalitions, especially that the former President Amine Gemayel has more notoriety and support, compared to his son in 2005.

The Armenians are calling to support Aoun, and their mobilization is traditionally high. Even though there are no Armenian candidates running for the seat, and there are many talks of internal disagreement in the Tachnak party, I will consider their support undiminished.

Finally, the Murr bloc. Michel Murr has reluctantly supported Aoun for the upcoming election, and an estimated one fifth (some claim is goes as high as 1/3) of his bloc leans for the Kateb or are indeed ex-Kateb or ex-LF (Geagea supporters) so I will go for a 20% (1/5) drop in his popularity.

Here I must take in account the long alliance shared between Murr and the Kateab that goes back to the 70’s and Murr reluctance in supporting Aoun, especially that he was the one who convinced General Aoun to leave a seat for the son of Amine Gemayel, who assassination a few months ago resulted in this partial election. Therefore, I reckon that he will not fully mobilize his voters and may, and I stress MAY, indirectly support Amine Gemayel. But I will leave these speculations out of my number crunching.


So the final numbers become like this:

35650 +2800(from Murr) for the Kateb and their allies

25500 for Aoun and his allies

7000 Tachnak

11200 for Murr

Total for Amin Gemayel: 38400

Total for Aoun: 43500


The difference is 4900, out of 83500 voters, which translate into a mere 5% difference. In comparison, in 2005 the difference was 28000 or 34%.

So in conclusion, the election will be very, very close. And any further drop of Aoun support or lack of mobilization in Aoun Armenian support, or if (and this is the most probable outcome) Murr chooses to stand by the sideline or refuse to muster all his support, will result in a victory for Amine Gemayel.

6 Comments:

At Tuesday, July 31, 2007 5:53:00 PM, Blogger Jamal said...

First of all the starting numbers you claim were the results of 2005 are inaccurate.

the kataeb and allies got less than 31000 according to official results, and Aoun + Baath as you put it got more than 50,000.

second of all you are assuming that whoever voted for aoun + baath and now regrets it will vote for amine gemayyel. they might just stay home, just like those disenchanted with march 14th. they do not automatically go out and vote for baath.

if elie beik skaff god forbids disappoints me someday, i will never vote again but i wont vote for anybody else's shiny scalp.


but other than that,in the absence of reliable public opinion polls we'll have to wait til sunday to find out.

 
At Wednesday, August 01, 2007 1:32:00 AM, Blogger BOB said...

First of all my numbers can't be inaccurate because they are my understanding of the situtation, following an analysis.

Therefore my numbers are just my analysis of the situation, from several sources.
So they are not official numbers to be inaccurate, they are just a rendering of the truth based on my analysis.

but anyways i will point you to Abdo saed article.

he claims that aoun bloc is around 28000 and the Kataeb bloc is around 27000 based ont he number of vote the highest candidate on their list got in 2005. In fact the number is 29400 vote for RIP Pierre.

now if you add 2000 voters to Aoun (for the SSNP) you get 30000.

now abotu the 15% Aoun lost, i am not saying that Amine won them. all i am saying that the LF and Kataeb popularity increased by 15% at least!!! these 15% that Aoun lost may not be the same 155 that Gemayel won...

:) but as you said we will see sunday. but i hope ytou watched tonight Bikl Gouraa on LBC with Bassil. The guy excplecitly played down FPM 2005 numbers saying that the 70% number is inaccurate and the average number for the FPM is around 63% and several percentage lost mean nothing!!!!

PS: 63% is around 51000, and that is the number i used in my analysis :)

are some people feeling the heat of the upcoming battle and laying the groundwork for a significant drop in popularity?

you judge!!!

 
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