6.10.06

20000 Missiles!


Yep that is the new official number of missiles Hezbollah has according to Nassrallah… Strange! But I will take this number at face value and try to apply some logic to it. Although I know very well that logic and Lebanese politics are two eternally opposite concepts...

The magic number was about 12000 missiles, a couple of months before the war. Speculation and rumors put it at around 15000 on the first days of war, so I will use the 14000 number, as a compromise…

Now according to most sources around 4000 missiles were hurled against Israel throughout the 33 days of war. Assuming that the Israeli army and air forces destroyed only 15% of Hezbollah total missiles (although many sources speak of 30% and even 40%) So his total after the war should be around 8000-9000 tops.

It took Hezbollah six years at least (from 2000 to 2006) while the border with Syria, at that time was wide open, and airplanes and boats loaded with missiles could easily empty their cargo in any Lebanese port, and the missiles arrived to Hezbollah unhindered.

Since the war all that changed. The airport and ports are more tightly controlled than ever, while the land border with Syria is still permeable but it is much less so than before the war.

Considering all that Nassrallah is trying to convince us that he managed to get an extra 12000 to add to his previous 8000 to arrive to the latest magic number of 20000. So once more I must stop and say “excuse me Mr. Nassrahaal but something ain’t right!

40 Comments:

At Friday, October 06, 2006 5:15:00 PM, Blogger Jamal said...

intibih mnee7 AKTAR min 20,000, w 7ot sha7ettain ta7et aktar.

 
At Friday, October 06, 2006 5:20:00 PM, Blogger hillz said...

zyeideh 3an essha7e66ein, 7066 sha76a telta biseero 3 sha76a6.
haydeh min 3Andeh ;)
on another issue; this post is out of date, bob.
inno u could post it after the "divine victory" festival.
eimteen kein?
2 weeks ago??

to put it in other words, ma3loomeit beyteh.

 
At Friday, October 06, 2006 5:31:00 PM, Blogger Jamal said...

on a serious note Bob, one thing the last war showed is the israeli intelligence and by extention the western intelligence community were completely clueless about hezbollah. they weren't able to locate the captured soldiers, they failed to knock off almanar's broadcast,they had no clue where nasrallah and the top leadership were, they didnt know HA could sink a warship, they had no idea HA had Cornets or whatever it is they used against the merkavas, etc.... in their defense, they did know where hassan dib nasrallah lives.

so all this talk about the missile arsenal size is just speculation, put away the calculator , grab a beer, and enjoy the brief calm :)

 
At Friday, October 06, 2006 6:36:00 PM, Blogger jij said...

I didn’t get your point ya bobby. Putting aside your bizarre calculations, what is it exactly you want? Shou, the myth of Hezbollah’s declining popularity is not flying anymore after the demo, so now it’s time to talk about Hezbollah’s military weakening after the war? 12,000 or 20,000 or 200 or one million, why should you care? Ma you won’t get to disarm them anyway, so why obsess about it? ;)

 
At Friday, October 06, 2006 7:23:00 PM, Blogger BOB said...

hilal

Old news or not, I write what I want when I want. If you do not like it then do not read it or comment on it.

But still thx for your pertinent and relevant comment!!

Jij

My point? Is it really that hard to get?
Nassrallah is lying.
Better? Hope you get it now.

I still say that their popularity is down, and so is Aoun's.
What else, ah disarming, good that you mentioned it! I am willing to bet any reasonable amount that Hezbollah will disarm or we will have another war (civil or regional) in one year from now.


Jamal

Sure they sucked! (However I have a minor correction, there was several reports in Israel saying that the mossad warned the navy about the missiles but they ignored the warning ) But still their intelligence sucked I agree.

But that is not my point I used Hezbollah's numbers not Israel’s!!

Yalla peace

 
At Friday, October 06, 2006 7:42:00 PM, Blogger jij said...

eh lakan ya bob i guess we're going to have another war ;)

 
At Friday, October 06, 2006 8:13:00 PM, Blogger Jamal said...

how are you using HA's numbers if they never divulge this information? you are assuming they had only 14,000 rockets.

Nasrallah once this spring was commenting on a Janes magazine article which claimed they have 12,000. He said they have more than 12,000 and by more than 12,000 he doesn't mean 13,000. That was the only time he mentioned the arsenal size before the war.

so for all we know, they might have had 24,001 (which is more than 12,000) before the war minus 4,000 used (although HA claims they fired 8,000 missiles) that leaves them 20,001 in other words more than 20,000 without resupplying.

or they could've had 40,000 (again more than 12,000) take out 8,000 and they have 32,000 left which is again more than 20,000.

or they could've had 1,000,000 rockets, ok you get my point, so how is he lying?

Bob hal marra ma zabtet ma3ak :o)

 
At Friday, October 06, 2006 8:16:00 PM, Blogger BOB said...

Jamal

Nop! in Beint Jbeiltwo or three month before the war Nassrallah himself said that they had around 15000 check your sources :p

peace

 
At Friday, October 06, 2006 8:47:00 PM, Blogger jij said...

bob by the way you didn't write 'peace' at the end of your post this time.

 
At Friday, October 06, 2006 9:14:00 PM, Blogger hillz said...

Bob,
"I still say that their popularity is down, and so is Aoun's. "

So this means that the "divine victory" demo failed? If so, please tell me what's the measure of sucess for a demo. ;)

as for Aoun,
i guess we have to wait for the 15th of october to judge, no?

ba3dein who said I don't like your posts? I really enjoy commenting on them. :)

PS.
Bob, write what ever you like, who told you not to? I only told you that your information is out of date and I repeat it: beyteh.
and I would add that the calculations are a bit bizzare.

 
At Friday, October 06, 2006 9:58:00 PM, Blogger hashem said...

Bob...
I wouldn't get into the numbers....in our country, it's a point of view!
Do u think nasrallah was going to tell the real number? inno come on....el jame3a azka min hayk...

I agree with hilal, this is so outdated anyways.

 
At Friday, October 06, 2006 11:21:00 PM, Blogger BOB said...

Ha! they are smarter than this, you said!!!

How come couldn't he anticipate Israel reaction if he was that smart!!!

Cause I and many other (my 80 years old neighbore included) anticipated such a reaction!

 
At Friday, October 06, 2006 11:35:00 PM, Blogger Mirvat said...

i didn't get the point of the post..
lying about the exact number of missiles they have? so what? why should they declare the number in the first place? bush for example doesn't declare when he plans to leave iraq because the terrorist would know.. but seriously why should nasrallah put all his cards on the table and give an inventory of what he has? and to whom should he present this inventory exactly?

and if the point of the calculations is to show that HA is still arming, well good.. i was afraid this war will leave us weak and exposed.

bob, no offense, but aside from your distinct choice of font, i can tell which post is yours from the title usually because my first reaction is always thinking that i ended up on an israeli site :) it's perfectly fine.. we need rightwingers here too..

 
At Saturday, October 07, 2006 12:08:00 AM, Blogger jij said...

Mirvat, what you are witnessing here is not a right-wing attitude. Right-wingers have an ideology for better or worse. This is merely Lebanese provincialism; much worse.

 
At Saturday, October 07, 2006 12:08:00 AM, Blogger BOB said...

Dear Mirvat, always a pleasure…

A couple of corrections first

I feel that your political view of the current situation is outdated (as if you are still in the war, with the right-winger headed by the Maronites against the leftist comprising the Palestinians and the rest of the Muslims). It is kind of funny when you call me right-winger!

As a matter of fact Hezbollah being a theocratic based party, pushing for a bigger role of religion in public life, using religion as a weapon and as a rally point, and promoting traditional and conservative daily behavior (veil , religiosity, martyrdom) will fall 100% in the ultra right niche of the political spectrum, and guess who is there too? Not me… But Bush, and his neo cons!

For me I am an atheist so per default I fall in the left side but it is more nuanced than that. In a nut shell concerning political rights and liberties I am an ultra leftist. On the economic side of the equation I am more of a centrist and on the pure political side I am also a centrist, leaning left, as I call for peace over perpetual war even with Israel.

I hope I did not bore you with the short political science lesson (it is kind of my area of expertise). But one more thing, did you realize that Bush and Nassrallah are so interchangeable. Both argue that they have a connection with god, that there action are divine, both use religion for political aims, both are very violent in their policies, both are very religious. Quite wired if you really think of it!!

Now about the fact that my post sounds like Israeli posts. I will ignore the veiled accusation, they mirrors what is happening in Lebanon’s public arena, but you have to understand that a portion of Lebanese (30, 40 or 50 or even 60% number do not matter) feel less secured when Hezbollah gets more arms in fact I feel more in danger! And no matter what you say nothing is going to change that. So a compromise must be found. We are not Israeli and neither Hezbollah is Iranian! We are all Lebanese and pretty soon if even you and I cannot understand the need to find common ground, away from mutual accusation, you will not have a country to come back to!!!

Finally Peace always and ever!!!

 
At Saturday, October 07, 2006 12:14:00 AM, Blogger Angry Anarchist said...

I agree with Jamal.

Also, the calculations are pointless (and totally inaccurate I must add), and it would be a strategic blunder if HA really said the exact number of their rockets and the details of their stockpile.

One thing HA is weak on is air defense. Something they should look into, though I'm guessing it's one of the more complicated and expensive things.

 
At Saturday, October 07, 2006 12:17:00 AM, Blogger Angry Anarchist said...

I am an atheist so per default I fall in the left side
Um, not really!! Atheism has nothing to do with political orientation, though many leftists are atheists and many right-wingers are religious nutcases.

 
At Saturday, October 07, 2006 12:18:00 AM, Blogger jij said...

Bob you always bring up this 'i am an atheist' thing and you wear it like a badge of honor. Shou khass ya habibi? Many LF members are atheists, are they 'ultra-leftists' as well? Karl Rove is an atheist, is he a Trotskyite like you also?

 
At Saturday, October 07, 2006 12:21:00 AM, Blogger BOB said...

Jij

well i will offer you another bet. I speak for what i believe not what my provincial leader does. So i will bet you another decent amount of money if you find any Lebanese politician that shares all my ideas. I am willing to discuss in lengthy details the mistakes, wrong decisions you name it committed by march the 14th.
But still i consider myself part of that group because between the two groups i choose the lesser evil.

If it comes to me, toss all politicians to the sea and let the new generation rule. Alas that is not possible at the moment so I side with the lesser of two evils, never following blindly anyone.

I hope that you do the same!

Peace

 
At Saturday, October 07, 2006 12:30:00 AM, Blogger BOB said...

Nope!!

Per definition religious based parties are on the ultra right side, and secular parties are on the left.

I am an atheist, therefore i believe in secularism and in total sovereignty of freedom of speech and the rights of abortion/gay/minorities and i also advocate a total separation of state and church. Therefore i fall on the left whether you like it or no! That is on the political side, the economic side it is a bit different.

Now it seems you disagree, good tell me your definition of left and right and let us see...

Jij

read carefully i said on the civil rights issues i am ultra leftist verging on anarchism, people have the right to ridicule anyone, say what ever they want, marry anything and anyone from any sex, believe in a chair if they want. Moreover i believe that authority by itself is a form of enslavement. Now if you know some atheist that adheres to a religious based party! Ha either they do not know what atheism is or they mislead you…

And finally yes it is a badge of honor to be an atheist!!!

 
At Saturday, October 07, 2006 12:40:00 AM, Blogger hillz said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

 
At Saturday, October 07, 2006 12:43:00 AM, Blogger hillz said...

so bob,
define the lesser evil.
is it the one who doesn't have connection with God? cause Geagea does. Well, and Saad does in every iftar or whenever he kisses king fahed's hand.
hmm who else.
oh, we have the beik whom his hand is kissed every sunday.
u see bob.
if u wanna take that as a rule, then it won't fit.
now for a more serious note, are the lesser evil the ones who give anti-syrian declarations the most everyday? cause u know, that doesn't build a country.
The problem between ur view and mirvat's, jij's, jamal's and my view is that we see the conflict from a wider prospective where as march 14 (the lesser evil as u see it) thinks lebanon is an isolated island in a far ocean.
as for israel, they believe in the saying: "if u don't harm israel, they won't harm you" neglecting everyday harmings in the lebeanese air and land stealing during night.

 
At Saturday, October 07, 2006 12:57:00 AM, Blogger BOB said...

I never said that the lesser evil does not have a connection with god. on the contrary they does and that is why they are still evil in my view!!!!

regarding your broder view, well WOW! you have had this broader view for 60 years all what you people got are defeats, psedo victories and destruction. time to change this broader view and try a new one! And if this new view does not work what do we have to lose more than 1500 dead and a country in ruins!

 
At Saturday, October 07, 2006 1:01:00 AM, Blogger hillz said...

ya bob u didn't answer.
what's the lesser evil?
ba3dein meen 2allak inno it's all defeat?
did u hear about 82 or 2000?

 
At Saturday, October 07, 2006 1:15:00 AM, Blogger BOB said...

lesser evil are the 14th of march.
at least i know i will not end up like iran... or syria...

82 :O you consider 82 a victory!!!!
and 2000 what happened! and at what cost! but still no victory!! not even in 2005. cause you make the same mistake olmert did your objective cannot be met! and i assume -correct me if i am wrong- that you want israel to vanish! so untill that day you are losing and losing badly!!!
and if you don't so define what you consider a final solution ofr the ME

Peace

 
At Saturday, October 07, 2006 1:21:00 AM, Blogger hillz said...

haltak sa3beh ya bob.

 
At Saturday, October 07, 2006 1:30:00 AM, Blogger BOB said...

Thx hilal!

I prefer to stick to opinion rather than personnel attacks. But as usual you fall into this sort of petty remarks. Can't say i am surprised...

Still thx, every such remark furthur proves my point...

 
At Saturday, October 07, 2006 2:04:00 AM, Blogger hillz said...

where's the personal remark bob.
7altak sa3beh bob, I repeat it.
look how many people agrees with u.
yeh. 7altak sa3beh.

:)

ba3dein kicking out israel in 82 and in 2000 were victories.
now u keep repeating cost cost.
as if he people who died for their country back then don't know that.


waiting for ur next HA post.

 
At Saturday, October 07, 2006 2:16:00 AM, Blogger hillz said...

correction:
as if the people who died for their country back then didn't know that.

 
At Saturday, October 07, 2006 2:47:00 AM, Blogger Lazarus said...

now u keep repeating cost cost.
as if [t]he people who died for their country back then don't know that.


which people are you refering to? those who were actively involved in resisting the occupation forces, or the innocent people who were sitting at home just before they were brutally killed? it's an important distinction to make.

 
At Saturday, October 07, 2006 3:12:00 AM, Blogger hillz said...

laz,
Take my lower bound which I thought that every body agrees on tht is people who fighted for 1982 israeli withdrawal and israeli withdrawal in 2000.
I said in my comment "back then" after referring to 82 and 2000.
to my surprize, bob sees that we achieved nothing in these two incidents.
what a shame.

btw, i corrected it, look to the comment above ur comment ;)

 
At Saturday, October 07, 2006 8:00:00 AM, Blogger jij said...

bob, hitler was secular. Of course we all now that he is also a leftist by definition. We also by now know that you are an expert in those issues, as you have consistently shown us on this blog. so if you tel us you are an ultra leftist verging on anarchism and other big words, khalas we have to discard the fact that you're 200% aligned with hariri (saudi arabia), geagea (phonecia) and walid jumblat (insert whatever here, depending on what day o the week it is). All edifices of progressive thought.
But more to the point, let me put it in a nutshell for you. I am an atheist, but as long as people like you and like ahmad fatfat exist among us, eh fada sermeyet el sayyid hassin, from now until 2075. And we aint backing off. Fa shouf shou biddak ta3moul.

 
At Saturday, October 07, 2006 11:53:00 AM, Blogger francois said...

it seems people like to have a "polémique" as we are saying in french but instead of advancing they are destroying the national unity.

let face fact:
everyone including the hezbollah agrees to disarm, the problem is on the method, some says: shebaa farms libération first, the others are saying "we need to disarm to negociate for shebaa", someone says, "we need to disarm to have a strong state", the others say "we ll disarm when we ll have a strong state"

such stupid talks ... instead of being constructive, it s increasing the inner tensions in lebanon and of course tensions might end up into fights.

so guys, beyond theses meanless numbers as we all agree on the objectives but having different path to reach objectives, can you seat hilal and bob and try to draw us a realistic path such as "okay i ll give you the half of my rockets now to strengh your army and then the other half etc..." instead of having empty talks useless and dangerous in the meaning that it s just the current reflection of the communautaristic tensions that can lead to more suffers ?

 
At Saturday, October 07, 2006 3:12:00 PM, Blogger BOB said...

Jij

So i am the problem now!! That is sooo funny!!

Still you do not read what i say; I am with the 14th of march because they are THE LESSER OF TWO EVIL not because they fit my political! In short no Lebanese leader fit my political aspiration. Now I know that 14th of March made many big mistakes, and I can discuss them into details, but are you willing to even speak about nassrallah’s mistakes? Or is he divine and can’t make any mistakes!!!

And your criteria for left or right is just progressivism? What happened to secularism, freedom of thought, minority rights.
So to make it easy I ask you again to define what you mean by left and right and we will see, and no matter what definition you use i will prove that HA as a religious based group are more on the right than the left!!!

 
At Saturday, October 07, 2006 6:58:00 PM, Blogger Rampurple said...

I really hate reading such comments as these. Bob wrote a post, his opinion, why do some of you have to title him as a leftist or as an Israeli or whatever? I think THAT behaviour is quite updated.

Why can't people for once still to the actual topic at hand??... the post.

3anjad zhe2et!

 
At Saturday, October 07, 2006 11:39:00 PM, Blogger BOB said...

finally a sane voice
thx ram...

 
At Saturday, October 07, 2006 11:48:00 PM, Blogger Rampurple said...

*outdated instead of updated ;)
**stick instead of still

 
At Sunday, October 08, 2006 12:15:00 AM, Blogger N10452 said...

Walaw ya Bob !!
How dare you question the number of missiles of 7assouna ? You should be ashamed of urself You Israeli agent !

It is weird how a Lebanese who believes in his country's sovereignty and independance keeps on backing an armed pro-Iranian Pro-Syrian militia that initiated a destructive war against Israel.

And above all that, the head of this militia claims he wouldnt have started this war if he knew it would lead to such a reaction.

Now in any civilized country, this man should be sued and jailed, however you find people here not even questioning his disarment, but on the contrary i heard the funniest comment that "
One thing HA is weak on is air defense. Something they should look into[..]"

Added to that, i see people comparing the 1982 and 2006 Israeli invasions.
First of all, more than 150 000 Israeli soldiers were implicated in the first invasion and it wasnt Hezbollah who stopped them, in the 2006 invasion, barely 30 000 soldiers were implicated and it wasnt a full attack, but more a chaotic unorganized attack.

I just wanna imagine what would have happened if Israel launched an organized war like the one in 1982 and Hezbollah was replying by launching thousands of rockets hitting Balconies and tables in cafes.

Finally, this so-called divine victory that Nasrallah claims, he might have won true, but the only ones that could share him this win are Lebanon's ennemies, Syrians, Iranians and Israelies and according to Hezbollah, God also shared their victory ( yeah whatever).

I always asked one question to Hezbollah members and sympathizers and never got a convincing answer.

1- Why would Israel wanna attack us if we didnt have something called Hezbollah ?

 
At Tuesday, October 10, 2006 8:14:00 AM, Blogger omare said...

To jamal:

Israel had nasrallah located and his top leadership right early afternoon wednesday after the border attack.

They intercepted communications and had them in 4 crowded buildings in beirut that the iaf wanted to hit and olmert refused to pull the trigger. That was the one chance they had them. The difference between nasrallah not being here is having a kadima milktoast pm instead of a likud pm.

They also could have shut down al manar but shutting down the international satellite from lebanon. Olmert refused that.

They could have caused choas in beirut by hitting the 2 billion power grid in beirut but olmert refused.

These rockets would be meaningless is israel had real leadership.

You could greatly diminish these rockets with a laser anti rocket system that could shoot them down. It wouldn't be able to stop a massive barrage but it would stop a lot of them. You could protect your major cities with this system but the kadima useless govt refused to fund it.

Same think with the cornet. Those anti tank rockets should be useless. Israel has a system to shoot down those incoming rockets for tanks. Only 4 of their tanks had them in lebanon and they weren't hit. The useless kadima party didn't fund the system or else all 400 of those tanks could have stopped all those cornets. In the field testing they are stopping all of them. Also there is technology to jam ied's which the u.s and israel didn't fund and are now only funding.

The problem wasn't that good technology doesn't work is that israel's technology was old.

Israel didn't have the bunker buster bombs that could have taken out the bunkers in beirut and taken out the rockets in the bunkers. Halutz rejected them.

Israel didn't have the new cluster bombs they were firing vietnam era cluster bombs that were useless.

Most of israel's drones also weren't armed and the ones that were armed only had very light weapons. In a year this will change.

Israel had old spy planes the new ones will be able to pick up much better communication on the ground.



Israel will be much better off years down the road with this new technology and a likud prime minister who will also land helicopters behind enemy lines from the start and attack from behind. Syria will regret not going to war with Ehud Olmert because Israel will be far better militarily with a prime minister like bibi than Ehud the liberal.

 
At Tuesday, October 10, 2006 3:27:00 PM, Blogger Angry Anarchist said...

at least i know i will not end up like iran... or syria...
But not Saudi Arabia..... ooops.

 

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